Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/24

Photo Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
Locks

NBA (1 Unit) San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5 First Quarter (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

Yogi Berra might look at this line and call it déjà vu all over again. Just like last Friday against the Utah Jazz, we find the Timberwolves at home, against an inferior opponent off a surprising upset, and the same exact first-quarter number that’s far too short.

Until a situational spot doesn’t look right or odds makers finally catch on, I’ll keep banking on the Wolves to continue their early dominance. After just 3 games, last season’s highest-scoring first-quarter team is also this season’s highest-scoring first-quarter team. And Minnesota is not making it close either, with a plus-13.7 average margin.

For their part, the Spurs enter this game over-inflated in the market off two wins over struggling teams. Despite those wins, they’re still 22nd in first-quarter scoring and a minus-4 in average margin for opening quarters. This is a mismatch on the floor and in the stat sheet, so take advantage of books sleeping on Minnesota’s fast starts here.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Chicago Bears Team Total Under 15 (-110): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

I’m just not seeing much offensive production out of this Chicago Bears team tonight, there are too many factors working against them. First and foremost is the opponent, an improving New England Patriots team that has only allowed 15 points in their past two games combined. Bill Belichick is the master of making an opponent play left-handed, and that should take on even more meaning with the Bears already so one-dimensional on offense.

It takes on a whole other layer of meaning when pitting Belichick against a rookie head coach in Matt Eberflus for Chicago, as the Pats have tormented new coaches over the years. This should also be a game where New England controls the ball and grinds the clock on the strength of their run game. Chicago is 31st in rushing yards allowed, so that should allow the Pats to dictate the game and keep the ball away from an anemic Bears offense. This game could get ugly, and I’m counting on most of that ugliness to come from Chicago’s offense.

Degenerates

NBA Denver Nuggets/Portland Trail Blazers Over 228 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on NBATV

Some line movement to the under in this game has me a little concerned, so I’ll leave this as a degenerate pick. But it’s hard to think we’ll see anything other than a shootout with this Denver Nuggets team involved. After their opening face plant against Utah, the Nuggets have gotten their offense on track. They simply boast too many excellent scorers to not like the chances of them creating an over environment on a nightly basis.

But the defense has been atrocious for Denver at the same time, surrendering 121 points per game, and a sky-high 1.126 points per possession. Just about any NBA team can take advantage of that, and I see Portland being no exception. While the Blazers are 3-0 to the under this season, they’ve played opponents with far different profiles than Denver has. Both teams play at a relatively high pace, so I see Denver’s offense and defense creating the style needed for an over here.

Tiny Nick is 910-754 ATS (+85.0 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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Photo Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

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