Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/12

Photo Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
Locks

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Indiana @ Ohio St. Team Total Over 48.5 (-110): 11:00 AM CT on FOX

Just toss last week’s Ohio State game out the window. Blustery conditions combined with the Buckeyes missing their top running back and wide receiver makes it completely allowable to give them a pass for only putting up 21 points. This week will be a return to the utter dominance they’ve shown over the Big Ten this season, averaging 49.6 PPG in their 5 conference games prior to last week.

They’ll face a very soft Indiana defense, particularly in the secondary. The Hoosier defense is 90th in the country in yards per pass attempt, 124th in passing success rate, and grades out to 121st overall in coverage. Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud will get his Heisman campaign back on track in this one by relentlessly throwing it all over that defense. Indiana’s defense is also 75th in finishing drives allowed, making it likely OSU keeps piling up touchdowns to get over this number that requires 7 end zone visits.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Missouri @ Tennessee Team Total Over 38 (-110): 11:00 AM CT on CBS

Who doesn’t love a good bounce-back spot? The Volunteers need one here, as their loss to Georgia last week puts them on the outside looking in for the playoff. The only thing they can do for themselves to make a CFP case is rack up style points, and it needs to start here. So for the team scoring the nation’s second-most points per game, I’m surprised to see a team total come in a full touchdown below their scoring average.

That likely has a lot to do with Missouri’s sneaky-good defense, but their success has been built up on a schedule that hasn’t seen a single explosive offense. Certainly not on the level of Tennessee, and most definitely not in a spot where the Vols will be this angry and motivated. Coach Josh Heupel has never had any reservations about running up scores or keeping the pedal down, so expect the Vols to atone for last week’s loss in a big way here.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Notre Dame @ Navy +17 (-110): 11:00 AM CT on ABC

I simply have to bet the situational spot here as a let-down for Notre Dame, who has not shown the ability to live up to expectations this season. For them to be laying this many points on the road is too much, especially in an age-old rivalry with 92 previous meetings. We’ve already seen the Fighting Irish fall flat on their faces against bad teams when laying big numbers like this, and those were home games.

Those were not instances where Notre Dame had just knocked off a top team the week before either. That tells me the Irish are ripe for a let-down off their huge win over Clemson, especially against a service academy. Navy might not have the talent of Notre Dame, but they do fight a full 60 minutes every game. On Veteran’s Day Weekend, I’ll take the Midshipmen to stay within an inflated number here, especially against an inconsistent opponent.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Central Florida @ Tulane -1.5 (-110): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN2

Can someone please put some respect on Tulane for once? Actually, I take that back, as I’d prefer that everyone keep sleeping on this team and letting them play the disrespect card. I highlighted the nation’s best ATS team last week, and it paid off, as the Green Wave trounced Tulsa on the road. Now they return to New Orleans, where head coach Willie Fritz owns the best home ATS mark (70.3%) of any coach since he took over the program 6 years ago.

And they get to play the disrespect card again in this game, being listed as essentially a pick-em against a more name-brand program from Central Florida. But I’m expecting some regression from the Knights here, as a lot of luck has gone their way so far this year. This is a likely spot for that to happen in a tough matchup for their RPO offense, facing a Tulane defense that can leave its excellent corners on islands and stack the box. Tulane’s veteran quarterback Michael Pratt should continue to lead this team well, and given the cheap price, I’m happy to back the Green Wave to continue their home dominance.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Washington/Oregon Over 72.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on FOX

Wait, how many points? You’re reading that high number right, and I’m not scared away from it. Let’s start with Oregon, who has never scored fewer than 41 points since getting demolished by Georgia to open the season. The Ducks are averaging 50.3 points in home games this season, furthering the narrative that Bo Nix can put up points against anyone in a friendly environment. He should have a field day against a very poor Washington defense, one that’s bottom-10 among all power conference teams in Adjusted EPA per Play.

But the Ducks defense also resides in that same bottom 10 and is allowing massive numbers through the air. Unlike in years past, Oregon simply can’t get any pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so a Washington offense that throws it at the fifth-highest rate and for the most yards in the country will feast. The weather is also going to be excellent in Eugene, so a track meet should ensue that gets this game into the 80’s or beyond.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Army/Troy Under 46 (-110): 2:30 PM CT on NFL Network

There’s a sneaky angle to this game and it resides in the coaching. Troy’s defensive staff is all quite familiar with the triple-option attack that Army runs. Their defensive coordinator and defensive line coach both used to be on the defensive staff for Army, giving them all the knowledge needed to slow down the Black Knights. That defensive coordinator for the Trojans, Shiel Wood, also used to coach at triple-option schools Georgia Tech and Wofford in years past.

So with Troy being able to slow the Army offense, it becomes a question of how their own offense will fare. They have a very one-dimensional attack, and it’s through the air behind quarterback Gunnar Watson. The strength of the Army defense is against the pass, and despite being poor against the run, I just don’t see Troy’s non-existent run game taking advantage. The style of game should keep the clock running and also force a lot of punts, so I see this one as a dead under.

Degenerates

NCAA Football SMU Team Total Over 45 @ South Florida (-110): 11:00 AM CT on ESPNU

This is an enormous number, there’s no mistaking that fact. But SMU’s red-hot offense gets to face perhaps its easiest opponent of the season here. South Florida ranks bottom-10 in just about every defensive metric, including being 131st in yards-per-play allowed, 130th in total yards allowed, and 129th in points allowed.

As a result, the Bulls have allowed 4 of their opponents this season to reach or exceed this total, and none of them were as lethal as SMU can be. For some context, USF allowed 54 points last week to Temple, who is still 113th in points per game after that eruption. SMU plays very fast, throws it at the 11th-highest rate in the country, and has scored 122 points in the past two weeks. Against this defense, the sky’s the limit for the Mustangs.

NCAA Football Oklahoma/West Virginia Over 67.5 (-110): 11:00 AM CT on FS1

I was on the over in Oklahoma’s game last week, and it cashed easily, so no reason to change anything up here. Especially not on the road against a team like West Virginia, who is amazing on offense at home. The Mountaineers are only average in scoring offense this season, but they’re 21st in scoring at home, with a far more efficient yards-per-point mark as well. But their defense stinks no matter where they play, ranking 123rd in both overall scoring and yards-per-point allowed.

Look for Dillon Gabriel and Oklahoma to air it out all game long against an atrocious pass defense. The Sooners can score at will against most any opponent with Gabriel healthy, but it’s because they need to in support of an awful defense of their own that’s 110th in yards allowed. That should fuel another shootout in Morgantown, where every game has gone over the 70-point threshold.

NCAA Football North Carolina/Wake Forest Over 78 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN2

Another eye-popping total where you need to be fairly sick in the head to bet the over. That’s me, raising my hand. Look, it’s all about the history of this rivalry since Sam Hartman took over at quarterback for Wake Forest. He’s faced off against the Tar Heels twice, with final scores of 59-53 and 58-55, both of which were all in regulation.

Hartman is in desperate need of a bounce back as well here after miserable outings against a couple good defenses on the road. Being back home, against one of the most forgiving defenses in the country should be just the boost he needs. But Drake Maye and the Heels are slinging it all over everyone right now, ranking 6th in the country in passing and 9th in scoring. I’d honestly be surprised if we see more than a couple punts in a game that should be a thrill to watch, so I’ll count on another over between these schools.

Tiny Nick is 940-783 ATS (+87.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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Photo Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

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