Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Golden State Warriors/Dallas Mavericks 1st Quarter Over 58.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on TNT
Things may have finally clicked for this Warriors team, and a byproduct has been early scoring going nuclear. Not counting the game in New Orleans where all the stars rested, four of the previous five Warriors games have seen an average of 65.8 first quarter points. Changes in who’s getting minutes when have paid dividends for this team that’s 3rd in first-quarter scoring at 31.7 points. But they’re also 21st in first-quarter points allowed, and that should help fuel another fast start tonight.
A sneaky angle of Mavericks games has been fast starts, as a team that’s 27th in overall scoring is actually 7th in first-quarter scoring. And their highly-rated defense that allows the fourth-fewest points in the NBA ranks just 12th in first-quarter points allowed. Other fast-starting teams have taken advantage of that weaker Dallas defense in opening quarters recently, and Golden State in their current form might be the most explosive opponent the Mavs have seen. I’m expecting fireworks to start tonight on national TV, so grab this early over.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Maryland -12.5 @ Louisville (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2
I’m riding the fade of this Louisville disaster until it goes against me, but tonight does not seem like the spot for the Cardinals to get their first cover of the season. If it wasn’t bad enough for them to lose three straight home games to suspect competition, Louisville showed in Maui just how bad they are against power-conference teams. They lost those games by 26, 32, and 19 points, with none of their opponents possessing the firepower of this Maryland squad.
The Terrapins bring an offense into the ACC/Big Ten Challenge that’s rated 8th in the country and scoring the sixth-most points per possession. That should overwhelm a very poor Louisville defense, especially with Maryland’s ability to limit turnovers. The Terps, at 5-1 ATS this season, showed me in back-to-back demolitions of very good St. Louis and Miami teams that they’re a true contender in the conference and nationally. A team like that needs to stomp this pathetic Louisville squad, and I think they do.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Norfolk State +25.5 @ Houston (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Don’t get me wrong, I love this Houston team and think they’re deserving of the nation’s top ranking. But how will this team respond in their first game after reaching AP No. 1 for the first time in almost 40 years? A certain level of distraction should be expected out of college kids in that situation, especially against a squad like Norfolk State. The odds-makers certainly want you to see that ranking next to Houston and bet accordingly against a low-major opponent.
But the Spartans are no pushover, loaded with talented veterans like Joe Bryant and Kris Bankston. They’ve also played a brutal schedule with road games at Baylor and UCLA, so they’re no stranger to facing the best of the best. Houston’s offense has slowed down in their past couple games, and I see more of a defensive battle here. With the Cougars possibly off their game for multiple reasons, this many points is worth taking with a sneaky Spartans team.
Tiny Nick is 961-800 ATS (+89.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
