Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics -3 First Quarter (-110): 6:30 PM CT on NBA TV
There are a few active streaks across the sports betting landscape that I’m riding until they give out, but this has to be my favorite at the moment. The green freight train that is the Boston Celtics should run over another victim tonight at TD Garden. That’s where their first-quarter dominance is even more eye-popping, with a plus-7.5 average margin that leads the league.
The Heat are likely to get blown out in this game overall, but I’m still just going to focus on the opening quarter. Miami is pretty good offensively in first quarters, but poor defense early on has led to them averaging a minus-0.3 margin in the opening 12 minutes. With Jimmy Butler still out and a long list of teammates joining him with injury designations, a shorthanded Miami team should stand no chance early on tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Purdue -15 @ Florida State (-110): 6:15 PM CT on ESPN2
It might be time to start considering Purdue a juggernaut, and if they are, they’ll absolutely roll Florida State tonight. This is a serious drop in class for the Boilermakers after they fully dismantled some top teams in the Phil Knight Invitational last week. Wins by more than this margin over Gonzaga and Duke deserve plenty of praise, and the only concern is that this may be a let-down spot against a bad team.
Florida State is one of a few programs to hit rock bottom this year, with very little talent on the roster. Several of their losses so far are just stunningly bad, the product of both the offense and defense being rated in the 12th percentile nationally. Purdue has been playing the game right, as they often do in November, so I have to trust the analytics models that say this will be a 20-point win for the Boilers.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) North Carolina/Indiana Over 148.5 (-110): 8:15 PM CT on ESPN
Oddsmakers seem to have set this total using a model that shows Indiana’s defense to be stronger than it is. The Hoosiers come into this game at 28th in points allowed and 10th in defensive efficiency, very impressive numbers to be sure. But opponent matters more than anything in November, and they’ve built those stats up against a cupcake schedule. In their only matchup against a power-conference team, Xavier pushed them to the brink in a 160-point game.
One thing that won’t change for Indiana in this one is their excellent offense that leads the country in efficiency and is 2nd in shooting percentage. Nobody is mistaking North Carolina for a good defensive team right now — essentially, two of their starters offer nothing on the defensive end. In a hyped home spot, Indiana should pour it on in this one. The Heels can still score with the best of them, though, and are not afraid to play at a high tempo. That should push this game into the 150’s or beyond, which smart money agrees with as this over has been bet hard since the open.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Cal State Fullerton @ Seattle -9 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This is a sneaky game that I think has been missed by the market. Seattle really is an excellent team, especially against competition at Fullerton’s level. They’ve beaten every non-power conference opponent by double-digits this season, including in true road games. Led by Cameron Tyson‘s outstanding play, the Redhawks have been an elite shooting team so far, particularly from deep. That’s where the matchup should present plenty of problems for Fullerton tonight.
The Titans can’t defend the perimeter, ranking 312th nationally for opponent 3-point percentage and 323rd for opponent made-three’s per game. Seattle lives behind the arc, taking the fifth-most three’s per game and ranking 48th in shooting percentage from downtown. But Seattle has also played strong defense, and should be able to shut down a weak Titans offense in a bounce-back spot off their first loss. The respected models I’ve seen all have this as another double-digit Seattle win, so back the Redhawks here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 963-800 ATS (+90.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
