Locks
NFL (0.75 Unit) Josh Allen Over 44.5 Rushing Yards (-110): 7:20 PM CT on Prime Video
The memory of Buffalo erupting for 80 total points in the previous two meetings with New England is still fresh in my mind. While the Patriots have certainly improved on defense this season, there’s one thing they haven’t been able to solve. That would be mobile quarterbacks, who have torched them on the ground in the few games they’ve faced a QB who likes to run.
Lamar Jackson ran for 110 yards, Justin Fields for 79, and even Sam Ehlinger of all people managed 39 on the ground this season against the Pats. And in those two offensive eruptions by the Bills last season, Josh Allen ran for 66 and 64 yards. Allen is still in uncertain territory with his elbow injury, making it less likely he’ll try to force things through the air tonight against a defense that’s 3rd in pass defense DVOA. Expect the Bills to utilize Allen’s legs tonight to exploit that New England weakness and get him over this prop in the process.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Oklahoma State @ UConn -8.5 (-110): 5:30 PM CT on FS1
Connecticut has been one of the most impressive teams I’ve seen all season. The way they dismantled three strong teams in the Phil Knight Invitational, including my Cyclones, was amazing to watch. The Huskies really don’t have many weaknesses, ranking in the top-10 for both offensive and defensive efficiency so far this season. Plus, that experience against some tough competition last week gives them an advantage here.
While Oklahoma State has looked decent, their schedule has not, with the Cowboys yet to face a single team higher than 72nd in KenPom rankings. This is also a big matchup advantage for UConn, as they own the 27th 2-point field goal defense and face a Cowboys team that refuses to shoot from deep. The massive interior presence of Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan should frustrate Oklahoma State’s one-dimensional offense. I see that helping UConn keep both their win/loss and ATS record unblemished.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 963-803 ATS (+89.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
