Locks
NFL (0.5 Unit) LA Rams Team Total Under 18.5 (-110): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video
I just don’t see where the points are coming from with this Rams team. On a short week here, with Thursday night games trending lower-scoring in general, this isolated total seems like too much credit for the LA offense. Without Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, or Allen Robinson tonight, the Rams will be forced to keep it on the ground, regardless of whether we see John Wolford or Bryce Perkins at quarterback.
However, the best way to attack the Las Vegas Raiders is through the air, where their pass defense is 30th in DVOA metrics. The collection of backup quarterbacks for the Rams just doesn’t scare me there, especially with the top receiving options out tonight. That means they’ll have to keep it on the ground with Cam Akers, who NextGenStats has rated as the second-least-efficient back in the league. The Raiders are better against the run, playing hard in their long-shot playoff bid, and should hold the Rams below this team total tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Iowa State +4 @ Iowa (-110): 7:00 PM CT on FS1
My attention tonight will be on my Cyclones for this Cy-Hawk on the hardwood annual matchup. There’s been significant line movement towards Iowa State tonight that brought the number to here, but I thought this game should be much more of a pick-em anyway. The Cyclones have been showing the ability to knock off top teams this season and control top offenses with their 13th-rated defense.
Despite Iowa’s strong offense, which I mentioned has been built up against poor competition on Tuesday, the Hawkeyes struggle consistently against strong defensive teams that slow the pace. Their losses to TCU and Duke came because of a style that ISU can easily replicate here. With their star Kris Murray dealing with an injury that jeopardizes his status tonight, I’m confident the Cyclones make a game of this and stay inside the number.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Iowa Team Total Under 71.5 (-110)
Regardless of who wins this one, I’m confident in Iowa State’s ability to limit the potent Iowa offense. The Hawkeyes have struggled to score against this kind of defense, as I mentioned above, putting up just 66 points against TCU and 62 against Duke on Tuesday. Despite a tough schedule against some excellent offenses, ISU has only allowed one team to get over this number on the season, and that required overtime. The Murray injury only adds to my confidence here, so add this isolated total to your card for tonight.
Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Iowa State Moneyline (+160)
The implied probability of this plus-side moneyline is 38.46%, and remember that I said this game should be a pick-em. That’s a lot of extra return I’m getting with a live underdog in the Cyclones, whether it’s a homer pick or not. Iowa State has shown the ability to beat teams like this, while Iowa has consistently shown that they’ll lose to teams like the Cyclones. Get in on this number now before the possibility of bad news about Kris Murray wipes out the value, because I see the Clones taking this down regardless.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trail Blazers -1 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on NBATV
It scares me that this number is so short because it looks like a home run spot for Portland. It’s been tough sledding for the Nuggets lately, whose only wins in the past couple weeks came against the lowly Houston Rockets. And they were thoroughly dominated in their first meeting with the Blazers this season, taking a 25-point beat down early in the year. While Portland certainly cooled off in the interim, a lot of that was due to injuries, particularly to Damian Lillard.
But it’s back to being Dame Time in Portland. Their star guard returned on Sunday, which is also the last time this team played, so he’s had even more time to heal up. His presence adds the dimension the Blazers need in order to exploit bad perimeter defense by Denver, which was the difference in the first meeting. And with Michael Porter Jr. out for the Nuggets tonight, they’ll be less able to attack the rim where Portland struggles defensively. All the key advantages seem to be with the Blazers here, so despite the suspicious line, I’m backing them to extend Denver’s losing streak.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 974-810 ATS (+90.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
