Locks
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Purdue/Iowa Over 149 (-110): 2:30 PM CT on CBS
Two elite offenses and suspect defenses collide here with the Big 10 tournament title on the line, and the matchup says a lot of points are coming.
It’s pretty rare for two Big 10 teams to be so excellent offensively. But Purdue owns the 2nd-best offensive rating in the country and Iowa is just 2 spots behind them. But it’s the defense that hurts both squads and honestly should remove them from the national title conversation. The Boilermakers and Hawkeyes enter this game 204th and 179th, respectively, in defensive rating.
The first regular-season meeting hit 147 total points with Iowa star Keegan Murray sitting out, and the second got to 156 with Purdue star Jaden Ivey extremely limited by injury. Those two are fully healthy and these offenses are in peak form, so I’d consider those scores the floor of what these teams can do. Iowa really can’t contend with Purdue’s size here and is going to have to try to outshoot the Boilermakers after allowing easy buckets inside. That’s a recipe for an extremely high-scoring game, so I’m on the over here.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies 1st Quarter -3.5 @ OKC Thunder (-110): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports OK
I’m going after this angle again with the Grizzlies because this is a matchup of best versus worst. Memphis is the highest-scoring first-quarter team in the league at 29.8 points, while OKC is the lowest-scoring at 24.6 points. The Grizzlies also lead the NBA in average first-quarter margin at 2.6 points, while the Thunder are again dead last at -4.2 points. There’s also a stark difference in first-quarter points allowed, with the Grizzlies checking in at the 8th-fewest and the Thunder allowing the 6th most.
The precedent is there this season as well, with these teams having played twice already. The first meeting was the year’s biggest blowout in the NBA, with Memphis (minus Ja Morant) up 15 after the first en route to a 73 point win. And even though OKC got their revenge a few weeks later, they still had to overcome a 12-point first-quarter deficit. With their roster issues as bad as it gets, OKC is ripe for another early demolition at the hands of the Grizzlies here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 642-523 ATS (+76.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
