NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves -4 @ San Antonio Spurs (-110): 7:30 PM CT on Bally Sports North
This just feels like a game the Wolves really need, with them right on Denver’s heels for the 6 seed and the Nuggets stumbling a bit. Minnesota has been able to get wins and covers against below-average teams lately. Until Friday’s inexplicable loss in Orlando, the Wolves had covered 7 in a row as a favorite. Minnesota actually has the NBA’s 3rd-best average margin and ATS plus/minus when favored this season, so I like getting them at this relatively short number.
San Antonio by contrast has struggled in this spot, just 16-18 ATS overall at home and 6-12 ATS as a home underdog. They were also thoroughly dominated by the Wolves early this season in the only other meeting, as Minnesota was excellent from deep and the Spurs couldn’t keep up. I can see that happening again here as the Wolves have only improved their shooting as the season has gone on, and San Antonio continues to struggle to shoot and defend the three. At a short number like this, I’ll back the Wolves to continue their recent dominance of bad teams.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Wolves/Spurs First Half Over 123 (-110)
Despite both teams being excellent over bets this season, they’ve seen their past 4 games go under the total, and it’s all the fault of second-half slowdowns. Those 4 games for the Wolves averaged 10.5 fewer points in the second half, and it was 19.8 fewer for the Spurs. Even the first meeting between these teams saw a full 33 more points in the first half than the second.
I’ve been noticing this trend across the NBA lately, and I refuse to get burned by it here with two teams that should theoretically provide a high-scoring game but are better early on. These squads are 4th and 7th in first-half scoring, as well as 18th and 26th in first-half points allowed. Whether it turns into a blowout late or they decide to play defense in a tighter game, I’ll just count on a high-scoring start here.
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 643-524 ATS (+76.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.