Locks
NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Arkansas First Half +5 vs. Gonzaga (-110): 6:10 PM on CBS
Gonzaga has not been sharp out of the gates in this tournament, leading Georgia State by 2 and trailing Memphis by 10 at their respective halftimes. The third time could be a charm, but I’m seeing a team so far that’s much better at making halftime adjustments than starting strong. Plus, Arkansas has to come out firing here and hope to get an early lead before their disadvantages inevitably come into play.
The Razorbacks just don’t have enough size to compete with the Gonzaga frontcourt, and that should ultimately be what does them in here. But before the Hogs start accumulating fouls trying to stop Chet Holmgren and Drew Timme inside, they should be able to keep this close for a half. The perimeter athleticism for Arkansas gives them an advantage over the Bulldogs’ backcourt, and if JD Notae breaks out of his slump, the Hogs can put up points in bunches. I’ll count on some levers being pulled by Eric Musselman early, along with another slow start by the Zags to keep this one close at the break.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Arkansas/Gonzaga Over 154.5
Arkansas will need to score from outside as I mentioned, i.e., lots of three-point attempts. Those either go in or create runouts for a Gonzaga team that loves to play in transition, but either way, it really pads scoring. With the Hogs also very vulnerable inside, layups and free throws will be a steady source of points from Gonzaga. But if the Zags do allow Arkansas to stay in this game early as I suspect, a more frenetic second half will see plenty of scoring just as their first two games did. Those both easily cleared this total, and I’m seeing another game here that should play more to the 160-point range.
NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Texas Tech -1 vs. Duke (-110): 8:40 PM CT on CBS
Sorry Coach K, time to pack it up. This is the point in the Big Dance where Duke has struggled, as they’re 0-3 ATS the past 3 trips to the Sweet 16 and 5-11 over the past 16 occasions. I see them running into trouble again with a really tough opponent for them.
This Texas Tech team presents schematic challenges for the Blue Devils that they’ve already shown struggles with this season, only now it’s dialed to the max. Duke already lost to and then squeaked by Virginia in two meetings this season, who is their only opponent to run pack-line defense. But Tech has far better talent and athleticism than Virginia this season to plug into that scheme, and I see it causing problems here.
Duke will need to shoot over the top of that defense, and that’s made all the more difficult with their best shooter in AJ Griffin hampered by an ankle injury. The question then becomes how Tech’s inconsistent offense will perform, especially after missing so many easy shots against Notre Dame. But Duke’s adjusted defensive efficiency rating has actually gone down after two tournament wins, so the Red Raiders should be able to get plenty of easy looks. If they capitalize on those, their defense will carry them to the Elite 8 and send Coach K into retirement.
NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Arizona -1.5 vs. Houston (-110): 9:00 PM CT on TBS
I’m seeing far too many people lining up on Houston here, turning the Cougars into a trendy underdog. Sure, Houston has been excellent against the number this season and they’re on an 8-1-1 ATS run. But at this number, you’re asking the team with the 86th-ranked strength of schedule to beat not only the best opponent they’ve seen all year but arguably the best team in the country. I’ve been high on Arizona all season, and while they looked extremely vulnerable on Sunday night, I’m not ready to abandon them yet.
Much is being made of the Wildcats having to face two of the top offensive rebounding teams in consecutive games here. But I see Arizona having gotten their scare on Sunday and making adjustments off that game to help them here. Houston crashes the offensive glass better than almost anyone, but they’re also vulnerable to transition offense as was the case in their three losses to fast-paced opponents this season. Arizona is the deadliest transition offense in the country, and I see them maximizing that advantage tonight. This is the least amount of points you’ve had to lay with Arizona all season, so I’ll back the team I still believe is the eventual champion.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 659-532 ATS (+81.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
