Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 3/31

Photo Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers @ Detroit Pistons +10 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports DET

Why would you trust the Sixers laying this big of a number right now? It simply hasn’t been a good bet all year, with Philly just 4-9 ATS when laying double digits including against this Pistons team early in the season. The 76ers have also been a poor bet in general lately with a 4-10 ATS run, partly explained by over-inflated value after the James Harden trade.

I see a lot of that here, with a public team in Philly going against a Detroit squad in the running for the first overall pick. But the Pistons have been extremely feisty over the past 6 weeks, going 15-4 ATS with 8 outright wins as an underdog in that stretch. At 19-12-1 against the number, Detroit owns the most ATS wins as a home dog and I see them keeping this competitive as well. They might be outmatched in just about every way, but this Pistons team fights hard, and that’s what I love to see in a double-digit dog.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks/Brooklyn Nets First Half Over 119 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

First-half overs are quickly becoming my new favorite type of bet, especially when I can find one with value like this. Let’s start with the fact that this number is less than half the full-game total of 243, creating natural value right off the bat. Then I’m looking at two teams here who love to light it up early. Milwaukee ranks 4th in first-half scoring while Brooklyn ranks 6th, with the Nets really ramping it up since the full return of Kyrie Irving.

And that brings me to another point, which is we’ve yet to see these rosters as currently comprised face each other. All of the three meetings this season have seen at least one of the premier scoring talents in this game sit out, but not tonight. With two full-strength and up-tempo offenses looking to show out on TNT here, I’m expecting plenty of buckets early to clear this halftime total.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Utah Jazz Team Total Over 118.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

If the Jazz don’t absolutely destroy a Lakers team missing LeBron James and Anthony Davis – after squandering a 25-point lead on Tuesday – then something is very wrong in Utah. I’m fairly confident they will but 13 points is a lot to win by in the NBA, especially in primetime games, so this feels like a better way to back the Jazz.

The good news for Utah is their 115 points on Tuesday was the best offensive output they’ve managed in two weeks, so they may be out of the slump on that end of the floor. This team is still the NBA’s leader in offensive efficiency, rating, and true shooting percentage, along with being second in home-court scoring.

The Lakers are already toward the bottom of the league in defensive statistics including being 26th in road points allowed, and it only gets worse when James and AD aren’t available. Opponents are 8-3 over this number against the Lakers recently, averaging 124.2 PPG, so this should be the perfect opportunity for Utah to exorcise some demons.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 665-541 ATS (+77.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/28
By Nick Hamaty - Mar 28, 2024
Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/27
By Nick Hamaty - Mar 27, 2024

Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/26

Photo Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Locks NIT Tournament (0.75 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+100; Odds via Caesars) Georgia @ Ohio State -400: 6:00 PM CT on ESPN The Buckeyes are just on […]

Continue Reading