Locks
NCAA Tournament (1 Unit) Villanova/Kansas First Half Under 61.5 (-110): 5:10 PM CT on TBS
Both of these teams are 3-1 to the under in their tournament games so far, which speaks to higher defensive intensity and unfamiliar venues. While that’s a little uncharacteristic for Kansas, it certainly isn’t for Villanova, and the short-handed Wildcats will absolutely need to slow this game to a crawl if they’re to have any shot. Both these teams have also seen their usually excellent offensive efficiency and effective field goal numbers drop significantly in the tournament. So while they’re both thought of as potent offenses, I see this game having the potential to get ugly.
But with the prospect of a tight game creating late free throws and the dreaded overtime, I’ll focus on the first half here. And if it ain’t broke, why fix it? First-half unders have been crushing it to the tune of 11-1 in the 12 games since the Sweet 16 tipped off. Villanova’s 14th-slowest adjusted tempo will likely have an easier time slowing things down early as well, before Kansas has a chance to adapt as they did against Miami. It’s a low number here but I can’t ignore the trends or likely style of this game, so I’m going under early.
NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) North Carolina/Duke Over 151 (-110): 7:50 PM CT on TBS
Two meetings this season, two totals posted in the low 150s, and two games that both hit the over while averaging 164.5 points. Yet the books made this total a little lower than those games, and that has me pouncing here. These blue-clad blue-bloods just don’t know how to go under, with the past six meetings all cashing over tickets. And Duke especially has been an over machine lately, going 9-2-1 to the over the past 12 games now that their offense is clicking.
And this game should feature mostly offense, as the Blue Devils are first and the Tar Heels 18th in adjusted offensive efficiency. But it’s a different story on the other end of the floor, with them ranking 45th and 39th respectively in adjusted defensive efficiency. While there’s definitely the potential for a slower start given the tournament trends, there are just too many excellent scoring threats on both rosters. Both teams are very familiar with how to score on each other, both offenses are peaking and I expect this game to easily clear the total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 669-542 ATS (+79.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
