Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks +4.5 @ Boston Celtics (-110): 6:00 PM CT on TNT
There’s plenty of reason to believe a bounce-back performance is coming from Boston here. It’s tough to look any worse than they did in Game 1, setting their season-low shooting percentage from inside the arc. Plus, it’s not often that highly-seeded teams go down 0-2 in a series. But is it truly reasonable to expect a 17-point turnaround out of the Celtics? That’s the implied swing here off a 12-point loss – to the same number as Sunday no less – and I just think it’s all a little excessive.
Let’s give some credit to the Milwaukee defense for that poor shooting performance from Boston, as the Bucks focus their defense on taking away 2-point shots. The Celtics are by no means an elite shooting team from beyond the arc, so that makes it tough for them to capitalize on the open looks Milwaukee allows from deep. Toss in the injury to Marcus Smart and I see a Celtics team that will need to scratch and claw their way to a win tonight, not run away with it. The Bucks are obviously a live dog here, so take the points in what should be a close game.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Bucks/Celtics Under 215.5 (-110)
Let’s give even more credit to Milwaukee’s defense here, as they’re playing the quality of defense you might expect to see out of Boston. This postseason the Bucks are putting up a 93.5 defensive rating, which is 10.6 points better than the next best team in Miami. Some of that is certainly attributable to holding down an overmatched Bulls team in Round 1, but it’s looking like less of a fluke now that they did it to Boston.
I’d also expect the Celtics to force a slow pace in this game to prevent Giannis Antetokounmpo from getting out in transition, which is a tough task but perfect stylistically for an under. These teams are a combined 8-2 to the under in the playoffs, with every Bucks game cashing under tickets. After 190 points on Sunday, I’m just not seeing how these teams get into the kind of style that would increase scoring by this much.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Golden State Warriors/Memphis Grizzlies First Quarter Over 58.5 (-110): 8:30 PM CT on TNT
There has been a big move on the full-game total tonight from Game 1, rising 6 whole points after these teams easily cashed the over. But the first quarter only went up 1 point, which is not a commensurate move or a big enough adjustment considering how that quarter played out. The first quarter on Sunday got to 56 points despite truly awful shooting from both teams.
These excellent offenses combined to shoot a meager 34% from the floor in the opening 12 minutes, including just 3 of 12 from long range for Golden State. Both squads can and should do better tonight. The pace was there for a high-scoring start though, and Memphis loves to start fast in general so tempo should not be an issue tonight. Books are expecting a high-scoring game overall, and I’m expecting a high-scoring start with some help from positive regression on shooting.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 708-573 ATS (+85.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
