Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 5/09

Photo Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks -1 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

An odd final minute in Saturday’s Game 3 between these teams caused Milwaukee to push on the 2-point spread, so for this number to open lower than Saturday’s closing line is a little strange to me. In an obviously tight series, I’m still giving the edge to Milwaukee, who has been impressive in compensating for Khris Middleton’s absence. Boston has had no answer for Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is having one of the best all-around statistical postseasons of all time.

I don’t see that changing any time soon, as Antetokounmpo should carry this Bucks team again tonight in a pivotal game. I do see a few things changing though, namely Milwaukee – the league’s 5th-best shooting team from deep – finally finding the range from three in this series. I’d also point out that Boston went to the charity stripe 34 times to Milwaukee’s 17 on Saturday, whereas the first 2 games were much more even in free-throw attempts. The Bucks this season sent opponents to the line at the 3rd-lowest rate in the league, so that outlier on Saturday created a closer game than it should’ve been.

Whichever team wins this Game 4 is in the driver’s seat to take the series, especially if the Bucks secure the historically crucial 3-1 lead. Home teams are also 12-2 straight up in the conference semis, so with that added advantage I’m sticking with Milwaukee to fix a couple of items and seize control of this series.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Celtics/Bucks Under 212.5 (-110)

Every game in this series has had a quarter where less than 45 points were scored. Those kinds of quarters have a massive impact on the overall total and are the reason why all three games have gone under. The totals have adjusted from the 218.5 that was posted for Game 1, but not far enough in my opinion.

This has been an incredibly physical series that the refs have let play out for the most part. I also mentioned the poor shooting for Milwaukee, and Boston has been even worse at just 39% from the field for the series. Even with increased pace on Saturday, the under cashed comfortably, so I just don’t see these teams playing the kind of game that gets over the total.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies/Golden State Warriors Over 223 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

Let’s take a moment to congratulate Nikola Jokic on his consecutive MVP wins, along with the redheaded regular on my podcast (and Nuggets superfan) Dylan Thomas for cashing a Jokic MVP ticket. But why was Grizzlies star Ja Morant given hardly any attention for MVP after such a strong season in Memphis? It’s because of how good the Grizzlies are without him, 20-5 on the season when the oft-injured Morant is out.

Memphis learned how to play without their star, and put up some impressive offensive performances in the process. In nine games down the stretch of the season, the Morant-less Grizzlies scored 121.7 PPG, including putting 123 on this Golden State team. I’d also note that the loss of offensive production from Morant is at least somewhat countered by his defensive impact, especially with the Warriors heating up from deep.

That makes this total plummeting 4 points an overreaction in my mind. If the Warriors continue their torrid shooting, they might do a majority of the work needed to get this over the total, especially with their playoff games already 6-2 over this number. But we shouldn’t discount the ability of Memphis to put up points without Morant, and that has me punching back against the steam here.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Chicago Cubs Team Total Under 3 (-110): 8:40 PM CT on ESPN+

This is a straight fade of the loser from Sunday Night Baseball, especially since there’s cross-country travel involved. Targeting those teams was a strong play all of last season and is carrying over into this year. But with the San Deigo Padres laying heavy juice in this one, I’ll focus on the feeble Cubs offense. Chicago being in a tough scheduling spot should only further their offensive woes, as the Cubbies are 10-2-3 under this total in their past 15 games.

The Cubs have been brutal at the plate since the calendar turned to May, batting a collective .165 and scoring 9 total runs in those 6 games. They’re up against San Diego’s top pitching prospect tonight in MacKenzie Gore who has been excellent at holding down weak lineups, plus Chicago has trouble with left-handed pitchers like Gore. It’s really looking impossible to go broke betting on a lack of runs in baseball right now, so with the scheduling factored in, I like the Cubs to continue their offensive struggles tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 714-583 ATS (+83.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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Photo Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

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