Locks
NBA (0.25 Unit) Boston Celtics/Milwaukee Bucks Over 210.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN
Okay, fine, I’ll admit it: I have no idea who is going to win this game or any of the other games in this series. Alternating wins for all five games, blown double-digit leads late in the past three games, it’s infuriating. For the record, neither does Vegas, since they’re making the home team Bucks with a close-out opportunity just a 1.5-point favorite. Vegas doesn’t seem to know what to do with this total either, as it’s the lowest of the series despite plenty of scoring in the past two games.
There’s a solid argument to be made that a close-out game will have a bigger focus on defense, especially in a tight and physical series like this. But the past two games have seen a drastic improvement in shooting, with one team finally cracking the 50% mark in both games. The ice-cold performances to start this series led to three straight easy unders, and that’s still holding this total down. It appears these teams have found answers on how to attack each other offensively though, and at the lowest number of the series, I see this game continuing the over trend.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies/Golden State Warriors Over 217.5: 9:00 PM CT on ESPN
I’ve said it before – as recently as Wednesday, in fact – that a matchup between these teams has all the scoring potential in the world. It’s like the potential energy held by a boulder on top of a hill, just needing a push to wreak havoc. The problem has been consistency, as a couple of 30-point blowouts by each team have shown. But the fact that Golden State has had a 142-point performance while Memphis just dropped 134 speaks to that potential.
The one thing that has been consistent though is a fast pace. The past 3 games have averaged 105.8 possessions, a full possession higher than the fastest-paced team in the NBA this season. That’s why those games averaged 227.3 points between them. It’s just the outliers of Game 4’s atrocious shooting, plus Golden State waving the white flag on Wednesday in a 95-point effort that are holding down this number. I’ve also said Memphis has no problem playing and scoring without Ja Morant, and they showed it again. All the potential is there and this total is generously low, so I’m on the over tonight.
MLB (0.5 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+150)
Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins (-165): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North
The Twins desperately need a bounce back after running into the buzzsaw that is the Houston Astros this week. A good opportunity presents itself in a visit from the Guardians, fresh off a canceled game due to a COVID outbreak. Cleveland is also sending Aaron Civale to the mound tonight, who has surrendered a minimum of 4 runs in every start and earned a sky-high 9.45 ERA.
Cleveland’s opponents have averaged 7.6 total runs in the games he starts, so this should be a good chance for the Minnesota bats to wake up. Minnesota’s value is a little deflated off that sweep by Houston, but that just makes this an even more valuable parlay leg.
New York Yankees (-175) @ Chicago White Sox: 7:10 PM CT on NBCS-CHI
No way am I stepping in front of the Yankee freight train right now, but I’m not laying this kind of juice straight up either. I’m also hesitant to lay the run line since this is implied to be a lower-scoring game. That makes them a better parlay leg in my opinion, especially given the spot here. The Yanks have been scary enough already, and now get another Gerrit Cole start after his past 3 have seen him allow just one total run.
The White Sox have been awful against right-handers in general, ranking bottom-5 in average, OPS, and runs scored. So good luck against Cole, who is still one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. But perhaps the scariest part of this Yankees team is that the bats are only just starting to wake up. If they can maintain any of the momentum off their 15-run outburst last night, that should be plenty for Cole to earn them another win from the mound here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 719-590 ATS (+82.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
