Locks
NBA (0.25 Unit) Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 55.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110): 2:30 PM CT on ABC
The Greek Freak tends to have freakish close-out game performances, and with him doing it all for this Bucks team right now, I see that continuing. In his past 3 close-out game appearances, Giannis has averaged 40 points, 14.7 rebounds, and 3.3 assists, getting him comfortably over this prop.
He’s also averaged 40 points, 15.3 rebounds, and 5.5 assists in the past 4 games of this series, going over this prop total in 3 of them. Milwaukee really has no other option than to let Giannis go all-out here, so look for their star to have another monster game in a do-or-die spot.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns -6.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on TNT
A Tale of Two Cities: great book and a great summary of this series. Not only has the home team won every game so far, but it also hasn’t been anywhere close. The home team has gone 6-0 by an average 17.2 point margin and is also 6-0 ATS by an average 16.1 point margin.
Those are incredible disparities, and why would we see anything different tonight given how consistent it’s been? Look to the other Western Conference semifinal that saw Golden State get installed as an 8-point favorite off a 39-point loss, and end up covering. Phoenix is in a similar spot here off a 27-point beating in Game 6, and I see them bouncing back in a similar way to take care of business here.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia Phillies/LA Dodgers Over 8.5 (-110): 3:10 PM CT on MLB Network
If the Phillies are going to hit like this – against a couple of the best starting pitchers the Dodgers can muster – then they should be an automatic over play. Especially today against something called Michael Grove, who is making his major league debut in what looks like a bullpen game for the Dodgers. After allowing 9, 12, and 8 runs already in this series, L.A. could be looking at another long day from the mound here.
I’m seeing the Dodger bats respond here as well since they’re too strong of a lineup to allow Philadelphia to out-slug them so drastically. This total is relatively low considering the first 3 games have averaged 16.3 runs, a product of the deflated totals across baseball. So if the Phillies can keep up the red-hot hitting, that will take care of most of the work to get this game over.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 720-592 ATS (+80.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
