Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 5/16

Photo Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

MLB (0.5 Unit) SF Giants/Colorado Rockies Over 12 (-110): 7:40 PM CT on SportsNet RM

Coors Field scoring has finally been taking off like it’s supposed to, and this should be another high-scoring game. Rockies home games have been averaging 11.6 runs per game compared to just 8.5 on the road, a product of them scoring 3.5 more runs per game themselves at home. That will boost scoring that should already be high with San Francisco plenty able to pound Colorado’s pitching.

They did exactly that just last week, scoring 24 runs across a 3-game series in San Francisco. One of those games saw this exact pitching matchup, with Antonio Senzatela getting rocked early and the teams combining for 11 runs. Senzatela has a really rough history against the Giants lineup, which is hitting a collective .375 against him. But the bottom line here is if this pitching matchup can create an 11-run game in San Francisco, a total being posted at 12 is not a big enough Coors Field adjustment. That makes the value here on the over.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks/LA Dodgers First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-110): 9:10 PM CT on MLB Network

Let’s just be real about the fact that the Dodgers are struggling right now. For an offense this powerful to turn in several duds like they have in the past two series is definitely strange. Welcoming the league’s 26th scoring offense with the 2nd-worst batting average to Chavez Ravine could help them in the win column, but probably not in any kind of slug-fest. That’s part of the reason I see a low-scoring start to this one, and it also helps to have two excellent starting pitchers going tonight.

Madison Bumgarner is looking rejuvenated behind a 1.78 ERA this season, and he notably has never allowed more than 2 runs in any start. MadBum also owns this Dodger lineup. They’re batting a collective .187 against him. And with Tony Gonsolin going for the Dodgers, the feeble D-Backs lineup should continue to struggle since they’re batting a collective .141 against him. Both starters typically get 4-5 innings of work in their starts, so with them both holding the opposing lineups down, I see this staying under the F5 total.


No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 721-593 ATS (+80.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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Photo Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Locks MLB (0.75 Unit) LA Dodgers/Atlanta Braves Over 9 (-110): 6:20 PM CT on Bally Sports SE The Atlanta Braves against left-handed pitchers – I will die […]

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