Locks
NBA (0.25 Unit) Dallas Mavericks/Golden State Warriors Over 214.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on TNT
Not a lot can be gleaned from the regular-season series between these teams and applied to this Western Conference final. Both rosters look a lot different today than they did for any of the four meetings, two of which were very high-scoring and the others very low-scoring. As a result, tonight’s total is more or less a composite of the posted totals in the regular season, which averaged 215.8 points. But I see this one sneaking over for a couple of reasons.
First is the way Golden State has looked to start both of their series so far, scoring 123 and 117 in their Game 1’s. Extremely hot shooting in both of those games carried the Warriors and helped cash the over in both as well. Dallas could easily find themselves susceptible to that kind of hot shooting like they did to start their series in Phoenix, especially with their defense looking extremely different on the road.
I also have to believe that the Mavericks have found enough offensively to carry into this series, looking unstoppable in their past 2 wins. If that shooting can continue and Golden State can dictate a faster tempo, this one should find its way over a pretty manageable total.
MLB (1 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+130)
New York Yankees (-260) @ Baltimore Orioles: 6:05 PM CT on MASN
We’re headed into sky-high juice here where the randomness of baseball can come back and bite you. But let’s be reasonable – the Yankees aren’t losing this game with the hot streak they’re on right now and their best pitcher going. The light-hitting Orioles lineup has a cumulative career .200 average against Gerrit Cole, and the Yankee righty should dominate them again tonight.
Give a little credit to Jordan Lyles for engineering one of Baltimore’s scarce wins against New York last month. But those were the old Yankees before they started putting it together at the plate. These are the new Yankees, who have 3 of the league’s top 5 home-run hitters all next to each other in the lineup. Lyles got a taste of that in his second start against New York, coming back to earth by allowing 6 runs in less than 5 innings. The Bronx Bombers should continue to punish right-handed pitching tonight for an easy win.
Chicago White Sox (-150) @ Kansas City Royals: 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports KC
I probably haven’t been fading the Royals as much as I should this season, but tonight offers a good opportunity to add a fairly cheap parlay leg. With Lucas Giolito expected back off the COVID list for Chicago, I’m seeing the White Sox getting the quality pitching that has eluded them at times this season.
Giolito has dominated weak lineups this season, and KC was already 27th in runs and 28th in OPS before their best hitter Salvador Perez went on the injury list. Kansas City’s lineup is also full of left-handed bats, which Giolito has also been excellent against this year. The Royals counter with perhaps their best arm in Zack Greinke going today, but he has already lost to Chicago once this season and has struggled in his past couple of starts. At this relatively small amount of juice, I’ll count on the Southsiders to win a game they’re supposed to with their best pitcher starting.
Degenerates
NBA Dallas Mavericks +5 @ Golden State Warriors (-110): 8:00 PM CT on TNT
Like I said before, this is a tough series to gauge based on anything that happened in the regular season. Dallas won and covered 3 of those 4 meetings, but what has me leaning towards the Mavericks here is what I’ve seen from Luka Doncic. He absolutely cooked the best team in the league last round, and more superhuman performances are coming. With Golden State’s defensive liabilities on the perimeter after Gary Payton Jr’s injury, Luka should be able to down some cheeseburgers and vodka pregame and keep his team close tonight.
Tiny Nick is 724-595 ATS (+81.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
