Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) Chicago Cubs/Cincinnati Reds Over 8.5 (-110): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports OH
The Chicago Cubs seem to have found something at the plate, and it’s sent the scoring in their games sky-high recently. Their past 5 games have seen 5 overs with an average of 12.8 runs per game, and I see another coming tonight. It helps that the pitching they’ve faced and trotted out themselves has been subpar at best, which is the case again here.
Kyle Hendricks is beloved by some of the advanced metrics, but he’s once again mixing strong performances with complete blowups. And the slowly improving Reds lineup has a solid history against him. As for Reds starter Luis Castillo, his current 4.60 ERA has come in starts against 3 teams that are all fairly poor offensively.
A Cubbies squad that has already put up 18 runs against Cincy the past 2 nights will likely do most of the work for this total themselves. Any contribution from the Reds here, and I see an easy over on a relatively low number.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Boston Red Sox/Chicago White Sox Over 7.5 (-110): 7:10 PM CT on MLB Network
Speaking of teams that have found an extra gear offensively, Boston’s bats have been absolutely on fire lately. It took long enough given the talent on this roster, but the BoSox have scored 5 or more runs in 10 of their past 13 games. That’s caused 12 of those games to go over tonight’s total, and I’m not seeing any letup here.
Yes, there’s a breeze blowing in tonight at Guaranteed Rate Field, but it’s nothing close to what usually causes panic on totals in Chicago. And yes, Lucas Giolito is going for the White Sox tonight, but he has actually been quite poor against right-handed bats this season. With a .286 average allowed and .853 OPS to righties, Giolito could get dinged up tonight by a Boston lineup with most of its key power coming from the right side of the plate.
And forgive me if I don’t trust the 42-year-old shell of Rich Hill anymore. He also struggles against right-handed bats which the ChiSox can stack the lineup with tonight. There’s far too much offensive potential in this game given the matchup splits, and I see these teams making their way over such a low total.
Degenerates
NBA Boston Celtics -2 @ Miami Heat (-110): 7:30 PM CT on ESPN
I’m having a hard time making up my mind on this game with a litany of X-factors impacting it. Miami being so dominant at home in this postseason (at least until Boston crushed them in Game 2) and looking for a bounce-back here is tough to go against. Save for the wins in Games 6 and 7 against Milwaukee, the Celtics have been alternating wins and losses for the past two series, so is it time for another letdown from them?
Still, I’m ultimately cautiously leaning towards Boston tonight. They certainly seem like the better team when you break this series down quarter by quarter. Somehow Miami has managed to win 3 of the 16 quarters but 2 of the 4 games in this series, and one of those was the 4th quarter on Monday when they were already down 24 points. And if you’ve been following the rumor mill, there are reports that key Heat players may be out tonight due to COVID protocols. That’s in addition to the laundry list of players dealing with injury for Miami, putting them in a potentially brutal spot here. The line has been slowly ticking towards Boston, a possible indication that the rumors are true, so I’ll cautiously buy in here.
Tiny Nick is 736-608 ATS (+79.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
