Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Boston Celtics/Golden State Warriors 1st Quarter Over 52 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ABC
The first quarter over in Friday’s Game 4 admittedly looked dead in the water until a late flurry pushed it over. The pace needed to create a high-scoring opening quarter was there the whole time, but the teams just didn’t get shots to drop until several minutes in.
I’m not sure if that’s the reason for this number to come down 2 points, but I’m going to capitalize on the discount. I expect the necessary pace to be there again tonight, especially considering the highest-scoring starts in this series occurred in the games played in San Francisco. First quarters of 61 and 60 points got Games 1 and 2 off to exciting starts, and easily went over this same exact total that was posted for both games.
With the series now a best-of-3, books are right to expect defense to pick up. But this number when compared to the full-game total of 212 suggests more scoring later in the game, which simply hasn’t been the case. This is mostly a play on the number for me, so grab the early over and expect another fast start tonight.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Boston Celtics 1st Half ML (+125)
The Warriors might be masters of the 3rd quarter, but the Celtics have been the masters of the first half. They’re 3-1 in the first half of this series, and in their past 5 games following a loss have won the first half by a minimum of 6 points. It makes sense considering Boston is the 2nd-best team in the NBA for first-half margin, and the best on the road with an average plus-4.9 point margin. At a nice plus-juice return, it’s worth a shot to see if they can continue that dominant trend.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Twins ML @ Seattle Mariners (+110): 9:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North
The Seattle Mariners are simply not a good bet when Chris Flexen takes the mound, as they’re an ugly 3-8 straight up whenever he starts this season. Such a small takeback on the underdog Twins reflects the worry books have that it will continue tonight, and I’m inclined to believe it will.
Where Flexen has primarily struggled is against lineups with right-handed power, which the Twins certainly have. It was on display for over a week straight until yesterday, which seems like a blip on the radar that Minnesota is due to bounce back from. They’ve solved Flexen once already this season too, defeating Seattle 4-0 in the fourth game of the year before the power truly showed up in their lineup.
If Chris Archer can continue his strength on the road where his ERA is considerably lower, then the Twins should really have the recipe for a win here. Archer is the only pitcher to beat the Yankees since Memorial Day, so building off that and getting the bats re-awakened should lead to a Twins win tonight.
MLB (0.25 Unit) Chicago White Sox/Detroit Tigers Over 8 (-110): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports Detroit
This is definitely an attempt to fade a White Sox pitching staff that has been brutalized the past few days. The South Siders have allowed 33 runs in their past 4 games, with consecutive extra-inning games over the weekend. There’s a good amount of burnout incurred from that stretch, especially for the bullpen. Those relievers will likely be asked to get back to work today since this is Lance Lynn’s first start back from the injured list, and those don’t typically last too long.
It’s tough to count on the Tigers to capitalize on that situation as they’ve only scored 2.5 runs per game over the past two weeks. But if they can chip in anything towards this low total, the White Sox might handle the rest. The Chicago lineup has done their part to make up for those recent pitching woes, scoring 34 runs themselves in the past 4 games. They’ve also averaged 6.3 runs in the 3 games against Detroit this season, so continued success at the plate for the Pale Hose should get this game over the total.
MLB (0.25 Unit) Houston Astros -1.5 @ Texas Rangers (+100): 7:05 PM CT on MLB Network
The Texas Rangers are in a position where I like to fade teams in general – the first game home after a fairly long road trip. That’s made even better by how that road trip finished, with the Rangers participating in those consecutive extra-inning games with the White Sox. That’s giving the edge in my mind here to Houston, who’s already had plenty of success this season against their in-state rival and the starting pitcher tonight.
The Astros lead the season series 6-2, with 3 of those wins coming by the run line. That includes both games started by Taylor Hearn, who goes again for Texas tonight and owns a 7.45 ERA against Houston this season. The Astros can stack up plenty of right-handed bats against Hearn to take advantage of his .848 OPS to righties. With their own starter, Cristian Javier, having a strong history against the Rangers lineup, this should be an easy win and cover for Houston.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 766-632 ATS (+81.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
