Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 6/24

Photo Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports
Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) LA Dodgers/Atlanta Braves Over 9 (-110): 6:20 PM CT on Bally Sports SE

The Atlanta Braves against left-handed pitchers – I will die on this hill. Even though it’s Julio Urias who has been mostly excellent this season, the hot Braves lineup is too good to ignore. Atlanta is averaging 6.4 runs per game in their past 20, and with the way they crush lefties in general, should be in a good spot here to contribute to this total.

If they do, then it’s likely that the Dodgers will take care of the rest. Despite Mookie Betts‘ absence, this LA lineup seems to have found its groove recently. Granted, crushing Cincinnati pitching like they did this week isn’t the toughest task, but neither is getting to Braves starter Ian Anderson. The right-hander has struggled at home with a 5.84 ERA, and his past 5 starts have gone 4-1 over this total while averaging 12.8 runs. The Dodgers have hit righties better this year, so I’d expect them to plate enough runs to get this over the total.

MLB (1 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+160)

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals (-160): 7:15 PM CT on AppleTV+

The Cubs are pretty much a mess right now, and I really don’t see any end in sight. The Cardinals actually started them on this slide, winning 3 of 5 in Chicago at the start of the month. Since then, the Cubbies have lost 12 of 15 games with a minus-4.5 run differential in that stretch. Kyle Hendricks certainly hasn’t helped much, posting an 8.10 ERA in his past 5 starts.

With St. Louis tied for the NL Central lead, they really need to capitalize on opportunities against the three bad teams in the division. They should here, and it’s a relatively cheap price due to a fairly unknown pitcher starting for the Cards. But it’s been a great month for Andre Pallante since taking over a starter’s role, posting a 2.60 ERA, and holding down this Cubs team during that previous series. With the Cardinals also swinging hot bats, they should extend the struggles for Hendricks and the Cubs tonight.

Detroit Tigers @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-165): 8:40 PM CT on AppleTV+

This is really just a straight fade of an awful Detroit lineup facing a sneaky-tough pitcher. I’ve mentioned before how putrid this Tigers offense is, scoring the fewest runs in baseball by a wide margin. Well, it gets even worse versus right-handed pitchers, against which they have some of the worst average and power numbers in the league. I’m a big believer in right-handed Arizona starter Merrill Kelly, who has calmed down after a tough month of May.

Kelly should be able to hold down that Detroit offense with ease, especially with the Tigers averaging a full run per game less on the road. And with Tigers starter Rony Garcia earning a 6.38 ERA in his 5 games since becoming a starter, he should help the Diamondbacks overcome some of their own struggles against right-handers. But when I see a team like Arizona – with a horrible reputation in the market – laying this kind of number, it speaks to how horrendous the opponent is. Detroit is close to an auto-fade at this point, and I see them adding to the loss column while this parlay gets added to the win column.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Cincinnati Reds/SF Giants Over 7.5 (-110): 9:15 PM CT on NBCS-Bay Area

This total reflects the cold weather in San Francisco, and not the kind of games Cincinnati has been getting into lately. Yes, it’s chilly in the Bay Area as usual, but there’s still a breeze blowing out of Oracle Park tonight and the weather report really isn’t at issue here. Not with the Reds currently on a 16-3-1 run over this total, mostly thanks to them allowing 5.8 runs per game in that stretch. All 4 of Reds starter Graham Ashcraft’s games have gone over in that stretch as well, and the rookie has gotten figured out by his past two opponents.

San Francisco’s bats definitely run hot and cold, so they could use an opportunity to tee off against a Cincinnati team with the highest staff ERA in baseball. And I see them needing to provide support for their own starter Alex Cobb, who has had some rough starts at home this season. With such a low total and an opportunity for San Fran to dominate weak pitching, I can only look to the over in this one.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 781-650 ATS (+81.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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Photo Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

Locks (0.5 Units) MLB Toronto Blue Jays/Minnesota Twins Over 9 (-110): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North Let’s run this one back after a fun ending […]

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