Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 6/26

Photo Credit: Kevin Sousa (USA TODAY Sports)
Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) New York Yankees Team Total Over 4.5 (-110): 12:35 PM CT on MLB Network

Regression is the word of the day for this game. Except for a 4-run final frame on Thursday, the Houston Astros have done an incredible job to slow down the Yankees freight train in this series. But something tells me the Bronx Bombers aren’t going to get no-hit again. Rather, regression towards the mean of 5 runs per game this season seems due for them.

Regression is also due for the Houston pitching staff since the game after no-hitters typically don’t go so well for the team that pitched it. And a likely candidate to deliver that regression is Astros starter Jose Urquidy. The right-hander has been rough on the road, racking up a 6.28 ERA and 4.90 FIP in 8 starts. Against an embarrassed Yankee lineup looking to atone, Urquidy could be in trouble here as I see New York remembering to bring their bats today.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays/Milwaukee Brewers Over 9.5 (-110): 1:10 PM CT on Bally Sports WI

José Berríos in road games is the gift that keeps on giving to over bettors. An awful 6.70 ERA away from home has produced a 6-2 record over this total in his road starts, not to mention his past 6 starts overall have gone over this number. Toss in that Berríos has a 6.20 ERA in day games, and that the light-hitting Brewers have already looked good in this series against Toronto pitching, and I see Milwaukee contributing plenty to this total.

But not to be outdone in struggling pitchers, the Brewers will send Chi Chi Gonzalez to the mound today. The Twins castoff owns a 7.36 ERA this season, and the Blue Jays already saw him when he was in a Minnesota uniform. Gonzalez is allowing a .346 average and 1.000 OPS to right-handed bats that are pretty much the entirety of Toronto’s lineup. With the Jays averaging 6 runs per game in their past 15, this should be another opportunity for them to score in bunches, sending this game over the total.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Chicago Cubs/St. Louis Cardinals Over 8.5 (-110): 1:15 PM CT on Bally Sports MW

The bottom line here is these two starting pitchers are allowing a very concerning amount of runs to an also concerning list of opponents. It’s small sample sizes for both Jack Flaherty and Alec Mills, but both have compiled awful numbers against teams not known for great offense. This series has also been a low-scoring outlier, as the previous 5 meetings between these teams averaged 11.4 runs.

The Cubs also have a horrendous bullpen, so if Mills only does short work, they could surrender enough runs for St. Louis to get over this total on their own. But my confidence in Flaherty is wavering after two short and rocky appearances, and I see his presence as only adding to an environment well-suited to a high-scoring game.

MLB (0.5 Unit) LA Dodgers/Atlanta Braves Under 8.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

This is a rare occasion that I’ll take a full-game under in baseball. But I’m doing it because I expect a pitcher’s duel throughout the game, not just from the two excellent starters. Undefeated Tony Gonsolin has had a masterful June, compiling a 1.16 ERA and 0.60 WHIP in 4 starts. As a right-hander, he’s what Atlanta struggles against far more, as evidenced by him holding them to 1 hit in 6 scoreless innings early this season. And behind Gonsolin is a bullpen that ranks first in xFIP this season.

But don’t sell Atlanta starter Spencer Strider short, who is looking every bit like the highly-touted prospect he was. The fire-balling righty’s 3.40 ERA is actually a little misleading, as his deeper metrics are even better. And behind Strider is baseball’s 2nd-best bullpen in terms of xFIP on the year. With the Dodgers struggling against decent pitching right now, I see that holding this Sunday Night baseball game to a lower-scoring affair.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 783-654 ATS (+79.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks. 

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Photo Credit: Kevin Sousa (USA TODAY Sports)

Locks (0.5 Units) MLB Toronto Blue Jays/Minnesota Twins Over 9 (-110): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North Let’s run this one back after a fun ending […]

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