MLB (0.75 Unit) Boston Red Sox ML @ Toronto Blue Jays (+125): 6:07 PM CT on SN1
I’ve been wondering for weeks if the regression monster is coming for Michael Wacha, but it still hasn’t and likely won’t tonight either. The Red Sox righty keeps plugging along with a 2.34 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, only having one blow-up game on the year. Boston still won that game, as they have in 9 of his 12 starts. Wacha also shut down the Toronto Blue Jays on the road two months ago in a 7-1 Sox victory.
That win came before Boston looked anything like the team they do now — they were 8-11 at the time. But they’re 34-22 since, including 19-5 this month, and I’m just not believing that they’re properly priced here. It’s true that Toronto has been pretty solid behind Ross Stripling, but only when they give him a lot of run support, which will be harder to come by against Wacha. The Blue Jays win by overpowering teams, not by winning pitcher’s duels. I see one of those tonight, and that has me leaning toward Boston at a nice plus-juice return.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Colorado Rockies Team Total Under 4.5 (-110): 7:40 PM CT on SportsNet RM
I love it when Coors Field forces the full-game total into double digits, dragging the underdog’s total up to a number they won’t reach. That’s what we have here as the Rockies face off against one of the game’s best in Clayton Kershaw. The lefty has an excellent 2.40 ERA since returning from injury and has increased the length of his start in every game. And remember that behind him is arguably the best bullpen in the league.
Kershaw also owns a 1.24 ERA on the road this season. He has been owning right-handed hitters to the tune of a .188 average and .507 OPS. Most of the Rockies lineup is right-handed, and they haven’t had much scoring success against LA so far this year. They’ve stayed under this total in 3 of the 4 meetings, and none of those came against the Dodgers’ ace. All the meetings have been in Denver though, where the Rockies score 2.7 more runs per game, so this Dodger staff has them figured out. I see that continuing here against a pitcher that’s still one of the best around.
MLB (0.75 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+120)
LA Dodgers (-215) @ Colorado Rockies: 7:40 PM CT on SportsNet RM
I mentioned how the Rockies aren’t likely to do much scoring in this game, right? That should help the Dodgers bounce back from last night’s loss with another win behind Kershaw here. Their shutout loss last night was fairly predictable, having traveled from Atlanta after an extra-innings game on Sunday Night Baseball. But the Dodgers appeared to have found themselves in that series and should continue to right the ship here.
They’ll face Kyle Freeland for the second time this year, after knocking him around for 5 runs in less than 4 innings at the start of the season. Freeland has a tendency to get knocked around in Coors, as his 5.32 home ERA is nearly double his road number. He’s also awful against left-handed bats, which the Dodgers have in spades. With Kershaw holding the Rockies down, I see LA getting back on track here with an easy win to start this parlay.
Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants (-195): 8:45 PM CT on MLB Network
This is a pretty short number to back Carlos Rodón against the lightest-hitting team in baseball, it almost feels like a trap. But I’m rolling with the Giants here for several reasons, not the least of which is Rodón being on the mound. The San Fran southpaw has been putting up masterful efforts lately, owning a 1.20 ERA and 0.83 WHIP this month. Rodón should continue that against the pitiful Tigers offense, whose lineup has a career .167 average and .487 OPS against him.
The problem for Rodón has been a lack of run support, and usually, I’d be wary against a pitcher like Tarik Skubal for Detroit. But the young Tiger has seen things come apart recently, piling up a 9.88 ERA over his past 3 starts, all Tigers losses. The Giants should be able to get to him enough to allow Rodón to handle the rest. San Francisco had a day off yesterday to stew over losing a home series to Cincinnati, so I expect this team to bounce back strong tonight and close this parlay.
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 787-655 ATS (+81.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.