MLB (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Braves -1.5 @ Philadelphia Phillies (+115): 6:05 PM CT on MLB Network
The Braves are facing another left-handed starter, and I’m jumping in again with both feet to back them. It’s a very favorable matchup for the Atlanta bats here against Ranger Suarez, who they already got to easily in his first start against the Braves this season. The Atlanta lineup has a cumulative .390 average and 1.108 OPS against Suarez, who also owns a 5.10 home ERA and should continue to struggle against all the quality right-handed Braves hitters.
I’m a little concerned about some of Atlanta starter Kyle Wright‘s recent struggles, though. But he’s only allowed a .187 average and .658 OPS to the Philadelphia lineup and has been excellent on the road this season. I’m also just not scared of this Phillies lineup without Bryce Harper, and I don’t see them being able to keep pace with Atlanta’s production at the plate. Steam has been driving the moneyline up on Atlanta overnight, so instead of laying big juice, I’ll count on the Braves to win this one big.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Boston Red Sox/Toronto Blue Jays First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-110): 6:07 PM CT on MLB Network
Nick Pivetta has been a revelation for Boston lately, a big driver of their current hot streak. The Red Sox righty has compiled an excellent 1.85 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over his past 10 starts. While his numbers against the Blue Jays aren’t as impressive, the roll he’s on gives me confidence he’ll be able to hold them down early here.
The biggest reason I like the chances for a low-scoring start in this one is Alek Manoah. The Toronto righty simply does not give up runs and has held this Boston lineup to a ridiculous .087 average and .286 OPS. These teams are also 6-3 under this F5 total across their meetings this season, despite being known for quality offenses. What they should be known for is horrendous bullpens, though, so only look to the F5 under here where these strong starters can be targeted.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Cincinnati Reds/Chicago Cubs Over 7.5 (-110): 7:05 PM CT on ESPN+
I’ll admit to not understanding this number, as it seems far too low given the pitchers involved. Since the wind is blowing in at Wrigley tonight, I can understand why it wouldn’t be a terribly high total, but that wind is supposed to be relatively light. And we’re looking at two starting pitchers with some significant recent struggles and a crazy previous meeting. The last time Hunter Greene (Cincinnati) and Justin Steele (Chicago) squared off, there were 25 runs scored.
Okay, so that probably won’t happen again, but neither starter has looked great since that game either. Particularly Greene, who has compiled a 5.87 ERA in his past 6 starts, including that slugfest last month. Toss out that outlier game and these teams are still 3-1 over this total on the season while averaging 10.3 runs. The appearances for these starters are also a combined 18-9 over this total on the season, so I’m just not convinced that a breeze can keep them from getting over this low number.
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 787-657 ATS (+79.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.