Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Twins Team Total Over 5 (-110): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North
This is a good way to back the Twins here while avoiding the meltdown machine that is their bullpen. They’ll face a starting pitcher tonight in Spenser Watkins whose deeper numbers tell an unflattering story. His 6.47 xERA, 5.79 xFIP, and 40.3% hard contact rate allowed are just a few of the numbers that place Watkins towards the bottom of all starting pitchers.
Those numbers should come into play tonight against a Twins lineup that definitely hasn’t been the issue lately. They’re also the 3rd-best in baseball against right-handed pitching for weighted on-base average, weighted runs-created-plus, and hard contact rate. They’ve also been great against the top pitch types that Watkins relies on. And with a strong wind blowing out to right at Target Field, I see the bats doing their part tonight against a favorable matchup.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Atlanta Braves Team Total Over 5.5 (-110): 5:40 PM CT on MLB Network
The Atlanta Braves against a left-handed pitcher in a small ballpark – sign me up. But with the Braves a nearly $3 favorite behind Max Fried and the run line even juiced too high, I’ll focus on them scoring plenty of runs against this awful pitching staff. It starts with Mike Minor, who challenged the Supreme Court for awful Junes by posting a 7.71 ERA. Opposing teams have averaged 6.8 total runs and gone 4-1 over this total in his 5 appearances.
None of those opponents are anyone I’d consider a truly dangerous offense either, so it’s likely Atlanta exacerbates Minor’s major problems. Nearly half of his pitches are fastballs, which the Braves are best in the league against, and they’re still one of the best against lefties in general. Minor also gives way to a weak bullpen that’s either worst or 2nd-worst in just about every stat category. Cincy has also allowed the 5th-most runs and most homers in their small park, so Atlanta really looks primed to tee off here.
MLB (1 Unit) Chicago White Sox/San Francisco Giants Over 7.5 (-110): 9:15 PM CT on NBCS-Bay Area
This low of a total makes absolutely no sense to me. While it’s true that the offenses for both teams are in a funk, what they need is to face some poor pitching. Oh look – two poor pitchers starting in this one. Lance Lynn has been getting progressively worse since Chicago activated him a few weeks ago, allowing more and more runs in each start with all 3 going over this total. Lynn is also heavily reliant on his fastball, and San Francisco happens to be the 2nd-best lineup in baseball against the heater.
That should rejuvenate a wildly inconsistent Giants offense, which they’ll need with Alex Cobb getting the start tonight. Cobb has been allowing more runs than he should against bad offenses lately, and a ton of runs to good offenses. How you’d classify the White Sox is up for debate, but they’ve run into some strong pitching lately and this should be a welcome reprieve. With a big wind blowing straight out to center, I’ll ignore the cool Bay Area temps and count on enough offense to get over this small number.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 790-660 ATS (+79.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
