Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) St Louis Cardinals/Cincinnati Reds Over 10.5 (-110): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports OH
This game features two offenses that have been hot, two starting pitchers that have not, and weather that is extremely hot. That justifies this high total, but I still see these teams getting over it.
The Reds and Cards have definitely figured out how to score against each other, with the past five meetings of the season series averaging 12 runs per game. I don’t see any let-up in that trend with two starters going today who have ERA’s north of the 6.00 mark. The run factory that is Mike Minor goes again for Cincy, who will have a tough time against the elite right-handed Cardinal bats. He’s also bound to exit early as he usually does, exposing arguably the league’s worst bullpen.
And with Steven Matz making his return after two months on the injured list, there’s bound to be some rust. The Reds have hit him well in his career and have figured out the St. Louis staff in general lately, so I expect them to produce today. On a very hot and humid day in Cincinnati the ball should be compressing and jumping nicely, leading to plenty of scoring between these teams again.
MLB (0.75 Unit) San Diego Padres/NY Mets Over 7.5 (-110): 6:10 PM CT on WPIX
I can understand the thought process behind posting a total this low for two teams in the thick of playoff races. But these two starting pitchers have shown too much vulnerability against the opposing team for me to believe we won’t see a lot of runs here.
In their four meetings this season the Padres and Mets are 2-2 against this total. But the two overs absolutely flew over, with 15 and 16 runs scored. Chris Bassitt started the 15-run game for New York and got shelled, while Blake Snell started the 16-run game for San Diego and struggled as well. I don’t see those as coincidences either since both have poor stats against the opposing lineups. Snell is the big key here, as he continues to struggle with walking batters which has caused his ERA to balloon this summer.
I also think the pitcher’s duel last night between elite starters is holding this number down, but tonight’s matchup is just far different. There’s also excellent hitting conditions at Citi Field tonight, so I expect these teams to clear a low total with ease.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Texas Rangers/Oakland A’s Over 7.5 (-110): 8:07 PM CT on FS1
The only change in the handicap from yesterday’s meeting between these teams is that the starting pitchers are cumulatively actually worse. These teams are still scoring at a relatively high level against each other and the wind is still blowing hard out of Oakland Coliseum. But that has only elicited a half-run adjustment from odds makers for this one, nowhere near what it should be.
It starts with James Kaprielian for Oakland, who has a 5.40 ERA at home and a 6.75 ERA against the Rangers this season. Both of his starts against Texas flew over this total, and his past 10 starts overall are 8-2 over this number. Taylor Hearn can be something of a wild card for Texas, but he’s been awful on the road with an 8.61 ERA and struggles against right-handed bats. Those starters are better suited to create another high-scoring game than even yesterday’s matchup, so take advantage of the poor adjustment on the number and grab the over here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 812-679 ATS (+78.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
