Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Twins ML @ Milwaukee Brewers (-110): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North
Poor Dylan Bundy, it really wasn’t his fault that the Twins lost 9 of his 10 starts in May and June. A lack of run support doomed his and their chances in so many of those games, but that seems to be turning around. Minnesota has scored 6 runs in all of Bundy’s last 4 starts, earning a 3-1 record, and that support looks likely to continue here.
The shorthanded Brewers rotation is turning to Ethan Small today, a lefty with less than 3 innings of big league work on his resume. While the Twins haven’t been great against lefties in general, a rookie is likely a different story for a lineup that came out of the All-Star break on a tear. Bundy is likely to give up some runs as he usually does, but Minnesota continuing to rectify the run support issue should be enough to earn them the win here.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Twins/Brewers Over 9 (-110)
I mentioned Bundy is likely to give up some runs, and it could be plenty of them, actually. Milwaukee is sneaky good against right-handed pitching, ranking top-5 in runs, home runs, and most power metrics. There are also two significant trends working in favor of the over here. Milwaukee lost yesterday in ugly fashion, and the Brewers have the best record to the over in games after a loss. And the Twins happen to be the best over team in road games, with the highest plus/minus to the total as well. That all has me seeing the over cashing in this one.
MLB (1 Unit) NY Yankees ML @ NY Mets (-115): 6:10 PM CT on TBS
It’s been a while since we’ve had a subway series where both New York teams are leading their respective divisions. It could be a tight one to start off tonight, but I see the Bronx Bombers taking the opener as they look to establish themselves as the kings of New York.
As good as Taijuan Walker has been at Citi Field, the level of competition will take a drastic jump tonight. He hasn’t faced an opponent anywhere near what the Yankees bring against right-handed pitching, ranking at or near the top of baseball in just about every offensive category. Signs of trouble are there, as he’s allowed a .937 OPS to the Yankee lineup in his career.
Meanwhile, the Mets have been struggling against left-handed pitching, ranking in the bottom-third of baseball for most categories. So even though the Yanks have lost four straight Jordan Montgomery starts in strange fashion, he should hold down the Mets lineup enough tonight. That’s likely why the Yankees are getting all the betting market steam here, so back them to take this first game of a compelling matchup.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Chicago White Sox ML @ Colorado Rockies (-110): 7:40 PM CT on SportsNet RM
The White Sox are definitely on the ascent, with all the talent they have finally putting some things together on the field. They can’t afford to not capitalize on situations like this, facing a struggling pitcher on a team that’s simply not very good.
The ChiSox are unique in that they can trot out a lineup where everyone bats right-handed, and that should give them a big advantage against German Marquez here. The Rockies righty has been considerably worse against that side of the plate and is not good at home in general with a 6.63 ERA.
And conversely, the Rockies aren’t great against right-handed pitchers like Michael Kopech, who starts for the Southsiders. They’re just 25th in scoring against righties, and all their right-handed bats will struggle against a fireball pitcher allowing just a .166 average and .525 OPS to that side of the plate. That all translates to a big matchup advantage for Chicago, who I see continuing their bounce back from early-season struggles.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 815-681 ATS (+76.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
