Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 8/03

Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Locks

No locks today. Locks will return when there’s not a board of giant moneyline favorites in baseball. Favorites of -300 or higher this season are 28-16 straight up, but a $100 bettor would be down $772 laying the juice on those games.

Degenerates

MLB Colorado Rockies/San Diego Padres Over 8.5 (-110): 8:40 PM CT on MLB Network

All eyes are on the Padres now after yesterday’s blockbuster trade, including the betting market that has made them a massive favorite. Newly-acquired sluggers Juan Soto and Josh Bell are expected to play tonight for San Diego, which the outsized moneyline would seem to confirm. But there’s a better way to play this game while also taking advantage of the new toys the Padres have, and that’s to back both offenses to put up runs.

The Padres already figured out Chad Kuhl well before adding Soto and Bell, as their original lineup has combined for a .321 average and .967 OPS against the Rockies righty. This season Kuhl has an 8.00 ERA and .385 on-base average allowed against the Padres and just had a horrendous July with an 8.71 ERA.

But don’t forget about Colorado’s ability to put up runs here as they face Blake Snell. This is the team with the highest batting average and most runs scored against lefties like Snell, who has a 6.91 ERA against them in two meetings this season. This total is just too low for the new-look Padres and a Rockies team that can do damage here.

Tiny Nick is 819-690 ATS (+73 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Locks (0.5 Units) MLB Toronto Blue Jays/Minnesota Twins Over 9 (-110): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North Let’s run this one back after a fun ending […]

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