Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Chicago White Sox -1.5 @ Texas Rangers (-110): 7:05 PM CT on Bally Sports SW
This is a pitching mismatch of serious proportions, so I was surprised to see this run line at a standard level of juice. Dylan Cease is basically untouchable right now, and by right now, I mean for two months straight. The Chicago righty has four earned runs across his past dozen starts – four! Not surprisingly the White Sox are 10-2 in those games, with the past 5 wins all coming by multiple runs. And somehow Cease gets even better on the road, where he has a minuscule 1.30 ERA.
I’m confident Cease will hold down a Rangers lineup that struggles against righties, but the same isn’t likely from Texas starter Glenn Otto. The Rangers have lost the past 7 starts from Otto, who compiled a 5.76 ERA in July. The right-hander really struggles at his hitter-friendly home park, with a 7.39 ERA on the season. He’s also bad against right-handed bats – which Chicago can line up almost exclusively with – as he’s allowed a .315 average and .909 OPS. All of baseball has been waiting for the White Sox to play to their potential, and today would be a great time to start behind perhaps the hottest pitcher in the league.
Degenerates
MLB Toronto Blue Jays/Minnesota Twins Over 8.5 (-110): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North
Count me as somewhat skeptical that Tyler Mahle is the answer to pitching issues for this Twins team. While he’s not a net negative, he’s no ace either, and this is a fairly tough spot to debut in a Minnesota uniform. As the Blue Jays showed last night they can pile up runs in a flash, and their right-hand dominant lineup could pose problems for Mahle who is worse against that side of the plate. With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on a 15-game hitting streak, Toronto should continue to produce offensively.
But I’m counting on the Twins to get theirs at the plate as well, facing their old teammate in José Berríos. The former Twin had a strong July, but he only had one start on the road against a feeble Oakland squad. So it’s been a while since we’ve seen the road version of Berrios that was such a gas can earlier this season, posting a 7.15 road ERA in starts that went 7-2 over this total. If any of that returns, the Twins should contribute runs as they have against the Jays all season. The previous meetings have averaged 13.3 runs per game, so this looks like it could turn into another high-scoring affair.
Tiny Nick is 819-690 ATS (+73 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
