Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays/Baltimore Orioles Over 9 (-110): 6:05 PM CT on MASN
The road version of José Berríos showed up at Target Field as expected last Friday, and I expect something similar to show up at Camden Yards tonight. Berríos never made it out of the 4th inning in that previous start before allowing 5 runs, further solidifying his oddly awful home/road splits. That 7.50 ERA on the road has to be the main consideration tonight, even though he’s looked fairly good against the Orioles in his career.
And with the Blue Jays hitting as well as they are, I’m expecting them to produce against Dean Kremer tonight. The Baltimore righty has had some bright spots against poor lineups this season, but Toronto is a bad matchup. Their lineup is comprised almost entirely of right-handed bats, which Kremer struggles against, and they’ve hit him very hard for a 1.263 OPS in limited meetings. These teams also just consistently go over the number against each other, 6-0 on the season series with 11.7 runs on average. With vulnerable pitchers and hot lineups, I see another coming tonight.
MLB (0.5 Unit) St. Louis Cardinals/Colorado Rockies Over 12 (-110): 7:40 PM CT on SportsNet RM
This number might be high, but the conditions seem ripe for plenty of scoring at Coors Field tonight. When you combine the thin air with hot weather and a strong wind blowing out, there aren’t many matchups that won’t produce runs. But this pitching matchup might generate a high-scoring game at any stadium.
With Jose Quintana going for St. Louis here, it gives the Rockies a great opportunity to continue swinging the hot bats that led to 16 runs from them last night. He already got crushed once in Colorado this season before the Cardinals acquired him, and his career numbers of a .351 average and .926 OPS allowed against the Rockies can’t be ignored. Neither can the fact that Colorado faces a lefty once again, which they continue to have top-level success against this season.
And the Cardinals should keep their strong offense rolling as well facing Kyle Freeland. The Rockies lefty has a 5.55 ERA at home, and his outsized 40.8% hard-hit percentage will be problematic for him in these weather conditions. The game after 20-plus run outbursts generally see continued high scoring, so count on these teams to produce another slugfest tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 821-691 ATS (+73.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
