MLB (0.75 Unit) Chicago Cubs/Washington Nationals Over 8.5 (-110): 6:05 PM CT on MASN2
I will continue to fade Patrick Corbin until the day he inevitably gets designated for assignment, and no team is foolish enough to pick him up. But the Nationals paid him a bunch of money, so they keep trotting him out there to get massacred, and we can keep profiting from it.
The Washington lefty has compiled a 17.72 ERA over his past month, just incredible sustained futility. The opponent doesn’t particularly matter, he gets hit hard from both sides of the plate, and his past 13 starts are 9-4 over this total as a result.
Often, the opposing team will do all the work needed to get over the total when Corbin starts, and that could be the case again tonight. The Cubs are swinging relatively hot bats and tend to score well against bad teams. But they’re likely to give up some runs themselves, with their starter Justin Steele owning a 4.71 ERA on the road and a bad bullpen behind him.
The Nats score a little better against lefties like Steele and just had a look at him last week. They may not be able to compensate for what Corbin gives up, but it shouldn’t take much to get over this total.
MLB (1 Unit) Minnesota Twins Team Total Over 4.5 (-110): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North
When it comes to home/road splits, some of the most glaring differences belong to Zack Greinke this season. The Royals righty has been amazing in Kansas City with a 1.98 ERA, but you just can’t bring him anywhere. He’s posted a 7.16 ERA and a .321 on-base average allowed in his road games. That’s been a big contributing factor in the home team going 7-2 over this total and averaging 6.8 runs per game in Greinke’s road starts.
Things don’t get much better for him when he faces the Twins, either. Their lineup has a cumulative .343 average and .887 OPS against Greinke and has tagged him for a 6.00 ERA in their two meetings this season. Kansas City also has a bullpen that’s bottom-5 in every statistical category, and it will get work since Greinke averages just over 5 innings per start.
That should be plenty of bad pitching for the Twins to take advantage of like they have recently, averaging 6 runs per game in their past 8 against the Royals. For plenty of reasons, Minnesota needs to jump on this team that’s called it quits early and often, so that should carry them over this isolated total.
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 824-692 ATS (+74.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.