MLB (0.6 Unit) Boston Red Sox @ Minnesota Twins ML (-120): 6:40 PM CT on Bally Sports North
With the Twins two games out of the division lead, every game becomes fairly important. But a game like this, at home where they’re far better and actually enjoying a pitching advantage for once, becomes extremely important.
The Twins are 11-6 at home since the All-Star break, and this weekend’s sweep of San Francisco shows that they might actually be serious about getting back into the division lead. They’re also 33-16 as a home favorite, while Boston is just 15-20 as a road underdog. And the Red Sox have little to play for; they’re all but out of any postseason discussion at this point.
That’s part of why they’re allowing Brayan Bello to keep getting starts despite his 7.36 ERA and 2.09 WHIP. Bello just keeps putting runners on, especially on the road where he has a .429 on-base average allowed. That makes Dylan Bundy by far the better pitcher here, and I have to give him credit despite my season-long skepticism. He’s had a great August, posting a 2.33 ERA, and has been far better at home all season — just like his team. The Twins need to show some fight in games like these down the stretch, and I’m willing to bet they will tonight.
MLB (0.5 Unit) NY Yankees -1.5 @ LA Angels (-110): 8:38 PM CT on MLB Network
The Yankees can certainly be frustrating to back, and splitting a series with the lowly Oakland A’s is borderline unacceptable for them. So they should bounce back today in a great spot to fade their opponent.
The Angels are returning home after playing in Toronto yesterday, part of a three-city road trip. Even though they inexplicably swept the Toronto Blue Jays, I still like to fade teams in their first game home after a long road trip. That handicapping strategy is more art than science, but this is also a pitching matchup that favors New York.
The Yankees will be up against lefty José Suarez, who has struggled against other teams that hit lefties well. With New York having its full complement of powerful right-handed bats back in the lineup, they should punish Suarez tonight. Their own starter, Frankie Montas, has been solid against the Angels this year with a 2.35 ERA and .207 on-base average allowed from his time in Oakland. If he can even somewhat limit this team that’s in a bad situational spot, the Yankee bats should take care of the rest and give them an easy win here.
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 834-700 ATS (+76.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.