Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/09

Photo Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays/Texas Rangers Over 8 (-110): 7:05 PM CT on MLB Network

The Rangers ran into a slight power outage on their recent road trip, but being back home should do them some good and help get this game over the total. The Rangers went 10-5-4 over this total in their August home games, which has helped make them the best home over bet in baseball. Meanwhile, Toronto has found their offense again, averaging 5.2 runs across their past 10 games.

The Blue Jays should keep that going against Dane Dunning tonight, who’s had a rough past month in compiling a 5.92 ERA. While Toronto starter Ross Stripling has been much better lately, the Rangers know how to hit him. They’ve compiled a .300 average and 1.162 OPS in limited action against the righty. These teams have also put up a combined 43 runs in their other meetings, a 3-game series to open the season. With a very strong Toronto offense and a sneaky Texas offense playing in a hitter-friendly park, I see this one getting over a fairly low total.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Chicago White Sox/Oakland A’s Over 7.5 (-110): 8:40 PM CT on NBCS-CA

I definitely don’t want to wish poor health on anyone, but it’s hard to ignore how Tony La Russa stepping aside for health concerns has coincided with Chicago’s improved play. The White Sox are 7-3 in his absence. More importantly, they are scoring 6.2 runs per game.

Chicago exploded last night for 14 runs against poor Oakland pitching and should be back for more tonight. They’ll face James Kaprielian, who would be having a miserable statistical season if it weren’t for a great July. It’s still not pretty, especially at home with a 5.87 ERA, and I see him struggling against the rejuvenated Chicago offense.

But don’t discount the A’s here either, as facing Lucas Giolito should help continue some recent success. The Chicago righty is awful against right-handed bats this season, allowing a .329 average and .962 OPS to that side, which happens to be the bulk of Oakland’s lineup. With better-than-usual weather conditions at Oakland Coliseum, these teams can easily find their way over this low total.

Degenerates

NCAA Football Boise St. @ New Mexico +17 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on CBSSN

This game features brand-name strength in Boise State against brand-name stink in New Mexico, which gives us such a big home underdog. Be careful with those assumptions, though, as I don’t think it’s telling the whole story. In this age of the transfer portal, bad teams can improve a lot faster, and that’s what I’m seeing with New Mexico. The Lobos improved drastically at quarterback by bringing in senior Miles Kendrick from Kansas, and his impact was felt immediately last week in making this offense look functional.

Contrastingly, Boise quarterback Hank Bachmeier was awful last week and had to be pulled from their ugly loss at Oregon State. Another long road trip here is a tough task for a team with massive uncertainty at quarterback. Plus, this spread has not moved despite a lopsided ticket and handle count coming in on Boise. That indicates a sharp line freeze to me, and on a key number like this, I’ll hold my nose and take the home dog.

Tiny Nick is 846-712 ATS (+77.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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Photo Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

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