Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/12

Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Locks

NFL (1 Unit) Seattle Seahawks Team Total Under 18.5 (-110): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

As a lot of teams and bettors were reminded yesterday, it’s tough to lay a touchdown on the road in this league. I’m hesitant to get chalky with the Denver Broncos for that reason, even though seemingly none of the smart money is willing to back Seattle here. But quarterback play is a big reason why there’s such a lack of support for the Seahawks in the market. I just don’t see it out of Geno Smith despite two excellent wide receivers at his disposal.

Coupled with Pete Carroll’s antiquated and conservative offense, I especially don’t see it against this Broncos defense. There is exceptional talent all over that side of the ball for Denver, and they’re finally healthy after an injury-riddled 2021 season. Despite the health issues last year, they still only allowed 18.9 PPG, so I’m confident they can beat that average against a bad Seattle team. The Seahawks would need essentially 3 touchdowns of offensive production, and that’s just too tall of a task, so I’ll take this isolated under.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Courtland Sutton Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

I’m buying into the hype that Russell Wilson has found his go-to receiver that he’ll trust in important situations. Sutton is an excellent deep threat, and Wilson is excellent at throwing it deep. Therefore, it seems like the perfect marriage, especially against this Seattle secondary.

Last season, Seattle’s defense ranked either 31st or 32nd in most categories against the pass, and they’re starting two late-round rookies at the cornerback spots tonight. For his career, Sutton has averaged 53.2 yards per game with quarterback play that can generously be described as sub-optimal. I expect him to have a big first showing with his new elite quarterback tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 851-720 ATS (+72.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks. 

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Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Locks NFL (0.75 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN Pittsburgh Steelers +8.5 I don’t think the Steelers are quite as bad as […]

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