Locks
NFL (0.25 Unit) Josh Palmer Anytime TD Scorer (+250): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video
It’s tough to pick a side or see how this game will play out. With two excellent teams – one of which will probably be the best team in the NFL that doesn’t win a division title – predicting how this game flows relative to an awkward point spread isn’t worth an investment. Instead, I’ll turn my attention to the prop market, and this one makes a lot of sense.
Josh Palmer is really a hidden gem on this Chargers offense, but he is buried behind two other excellent receivers in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. But with Allen out tonight, it becomes Palmer’s time to shine. He took advantage last season in this situation, scoring a touchdown in both games where he started in place of either Allen or Williams. And the Chiefs are banged up in their secondary with Trent McDuffie out, meaning Palmer will spend most of the game seeing a backup cornerback. At a nice juicy price, I’m willing to take a shot that this diamond in the rough shines for LA tonight.
Degenerates
NFL LA Chargers/KC Chiefs Under 54.5 (-110): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video
People lose in betting on the NFL because it’s the easiest league to fall victim to what you just saw. What everyone just saw last week was Patrick Mahomes and the high-powered Chiefs offense tearing Arizona to shreds. That’s why we see such a high total here, and the thought of these elite quarterbacks squaring off is all most people need to back the over.
But the Chargers have a defense that is worlds ahead of the banged-up unit that Kansas City torched on Sunday. With an excellent defensive front, I see the Chargers being able to drop in coverage and limit KC’s passing game while still controlling the line. The Chiefs will need to adapt their new-look receiving corps here against an actual defense, which should cause some growing pains.
Interestingly, both these teams played to a slower pace last week than they did last season, indicative of defenses being ahead of offenses at this stage of the season. And Thursday Night Football games trend heavily to the under as teams like to take it a little easier on short rest. Instances of a TNF total higher than 51 points cash the under at 68%, and those higher than 54 have gone under in 7 straight. I’m going against the grain of conventional wisdom here and betting under despite the offenses involved.
Tiny Nick is 853-722 ATS (+73.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
