Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/22

Photo Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

Pittsburgh Steelers +10.5

I’m never expecting a runaway game in an AFC North matchup between two teams like this. I’m seeing another typical hard-fought and close contest from the black-and-blue division here, creating a lot of value on getting double digits. Look no further than how these teams have fared so far this season, with their 4 combined games being decided by a grand total of 9 points.

Even if the Browns take a significant lead in this game, how can you trust their defense not to melt again like it has in consecutive weeks? The Steelers might have a suspect offense at this point, but that’s exactly the kind of offense Cleveland has allowed back into both their games. Add in the fact that Kevin Stefanski is 1-11 ATS in divisional games, and you have a great situation for the Steelers to keep this within the teased number.

Pittsburgh Steelers/Cleveland Browns Over 32.5

I think the total as it sits at 38.5 is a pretty fair number, and a strong argument could be made to tease it in either direction. A forecast of windy conditions in Cleveland drove the total down a few points, and I’m teasing this to take further advantage of the move. That windy weather is far less of a concern for me, given these teams prefer to run the ball anyway, and that should certainly get the Browns some points with Pittsburgh ranking 22nd against the run.

So I just can’t trust these defenses at the moment, particularly Cleveland’s late, as I mentioned above. If the Steelers were to open things up offensively like the players have been clamoring for, now would be the opportunity. And with some of the top defensive players in this matchup listed either out or questionable, there might be a lot less defense than expected. For two teams whose games have averaged 46.3 points thus far, just getting to 33 should not be a tall task regardless of the wind.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 861-725 ATS (+72.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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Photo Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

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