Locks
NCAA Football (1.5 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110)
Duke @ Kansas -1: 11:00 AM CT on FS1
No, it’s not a basketball game (these schools will face off on Nov. 15th for that), but it’s a compelling matchup between unbeaten teams. I’m tempted to lay the points with Kansas since I think this is a spot where they’re highly motivated, returning home to an expected capacity crowd. But it’s an awkward number, and getting them to essentially win the game instead makes me more comfortable.
The brutal recent history of Kansas football still has them disrespected in the market, despite this being their first 3-0 start since 2009 and looking fantastic in the process. Scoring 103 total points in two road games against legitimate teams is very impressive, and this offense is definitely humming behind dual-threat QB Jalon Daniels. The undefeated start for Duke is far less impressive if you dig in, especially allowing as many points as they have the past two weeks. I just don’t think they have what it takes in a hostile environment like this, facing a team that is as hungry as it gets for a 4-0 start.
Florida @ Tennessee -4.5: 2:30 PM CT on CBS
Again, I’m tempted to lay the points with the home favorite, but again it’s an awkward number. You’re also paying a premium to back Tennessee right now due to their power rating, so I’m looking for a discount. I really love the Vols though, and I think they’re in an excellent position to make Rocky Top forget about the 16 losses in the past 17 meetings with Florida. The Gators have to be the most fraudulent top-25 team in the country, with a fluke win over Utah doing all the work to keep them in the rankings.
It’s another situation where a team has to travel to a very hostile environment, and their QB Anthony Richardson is making his first true road start while still learning the position. I just think Tennessee has too much offense, especially on the ground with QB Hendon Hooker’s running ability. Florida has been gashed on the ground this season, ranking 112th in rush yards allowed and will struggle here against the most athletic skill players they’ve faced yet. The Vols can go a long way towards proving themselves in this spot and should cruise against their overrated rival.
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Clemson/Wake Forest Over 55.5 (-110): 11:00 AM CT on ABC
Clemson’s defense has been showing cracks, and I think those show up in a significant way today. Even though the Tigers are dominant up front, the back end has been getting torched for 243 passing yards per game. That puts them at 70th in the country, and they’ve only faced the likes of Georgia Tech, Louisiana Tech, and Furman.
Sam Hartman and Wake’s elite passing game should be able to exploit that here, as long as they can figure out the protection issues that have plagued them in previous meetings with Clemson. Obviously, Wake isn’t stopping anything either, as their defense keeps getting worse. Will Shipley and Co. will find plenty of room to run like they did in last year’s 48-27 drubbing of the Demon Deacons. As long as this total is below that key number of 56, I’m going with the over.
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Central Michigan/Penn St. Over 62 (-110): 11:00 AM CT on BTN
Penn State will have to contend with a functional offense again after two games against teams that can’t get out of their own way. Central Michigan has a quarterback in Daniel Richardson who is a dual threat, and a running back in Lew Nichols III who is excellent as a runner and receiver. Let’s not forget this Chippewas team put up 44 points on Oklahoma State, a defense that struggles to tackle.
It just so happens that Penn State grades out at 125th out of 131 FBS teams in tackling, so they should give up plenty of yards and scoring opportunities. But the Chips can’t stop anything either, and the Penn State offense is rolling right now behind running back Nick Singleton who averages a whopping 11 yards per carry. The Nittany Lions should score in bunches early, at the very least CMU will get points late, and that will push this over the total.
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) UCLA @ Colorado 1st Half +12.5 (-110): 1:00 PM CT on PAC12 Network
One of these times, UCLA is going to get burned by the slow starts where they play with their food in the first half of games. The Bruins trailed last week at the break to South Alabama and had just a 7-point lead over Bowling Green at halftime of their season opener. Neither of those teams is anything special, and while Colorado isn’t either, they’re still the first power conference opponent UCLA has faced.
Those slow starts all came in Los Angeles as well, making this the first road game for the Bruins. The spot isn’t doing them any favors, having to travel to elevation where the coastal schools always struggle. Plus, UCLA could easily be overlooking this poor Buffaloes team since they have a short week before hosting surprise Pac-12 contender Washington next Friday. It’s not fun to back Colorado to do anything, but UCLA is a slow-starting team until proven otherwise. I’ll take almost two touchdowns of points in the early going here.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Rice/Houston Over 51.5 (-110): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN+
I’m just not understanding this total given the lack of defense I expect to see in this crosstown showdown. Things have gotten pretty bad for the Houston Cougars after a home blowout at the hands of Kansas. They can’t stop anything on the ground or through the air, ranking 118th in the country for total yards allowed. Even in their lone win, the Cougars allowed a far inferior UTSA team to hang around and force overtime, so Rice should be able to contribute plenty towards this total.
But the Owls will have no chance of stopping Houston if the Cougars decide to run it up, which I expect they might do out of frustration with how the season has gone. The connection between quarterback Clayton Tune and his favorite receiver Nathaniel Dell is tough for any team to stop, much less a Group of 5 school like Rice. These teams are also a combined 6-0 over this total, so regardless of what style of game plays out here, I see it getting over a fairly low total.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Vanderbilt/Alabama First Quarter Over 13.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on SEC Network
Vanderbilt is starting freshman AJ Swann at quarterback, who I actually think has looked pretty good so far. Don’t be surprised if he brings the Commodores down for an early score — or if he throws a touchdown to an Alabama defense that likes to jump routes early in games. Either way, Swann will have an impact on the early scoring tonight.
But the Commodores still have one of the worst defenses in the country, and Alabama has been unstoppable at home against bad teams. The Tide have scored 45 first-quarter points in their two home games, and Vandy’s 1st quarters also happen to be 3-0 over this number. Additionally, Nick Saban and Alabama will want this one over with quickly since a trip to Arkansas is on deck. The Tide certainly can and probably will do all the work here, getting this first quarter over the isolated total.
Degenerates
NCAA Football Maryland @ Michigan -10 First Half (-110): 11:00 AM CT on FOX
My family has a lot of ties to Maryland and the Terrapins, so this one hurts a little. But I just can’t ignore what Michigan has done in first halves of games recently. Including all of last season, the Wolverines are 14-1-1 ATS against the first-half spread. With this spread sitting flat on the key number of 10, I think it’s a good spot lay it with Michigan against a Terps team that gives up plenty of yards and points.
Tiny Nick is 863-725 ATS (+73.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
