Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/25

Photo Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110)

Buffalo Bills/Miami Dolphins Over 47: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

There’s been a significant upward move on the total here, so I’ll push it back down to 47 which is a key totals number. I’m expecting more fireworks here with both offenses in a groove and both defenses vulnerable. The Buffalo offense speaks for itself, looking like an unstoppable force. The Bills are also expected to get Gabe Davis back in the lineup this week, creating a big mismatch against a Dolphins secondary that was torched last week.

While I’m not expecting the Dolphins’ offense to replicate their 42-point outburst from last Sunday with regularity, there is an important parallel for this game. Tua Tagovailoa and his speedy receivers took advantage of backups in the Baltimore secondary last week and will be facing backup corners and a backup safety for Buffalo here. That should help them keep up with the Buffalo offense to some extent in what I see as a shootout.

Detroit Lions/Minnesota Vikings Over 46.5: 12:00 PM CT on FOX

Once again I’m looking to get this total below the key number of 47, and once again with two excellent offenses involved. The Lions are one of only four teams to cash the over in their first two games, and they’ve done it with flair. Final totals of 73 and 63 points have shown that the Lions have the offense to score on anyone but the defense to let any team hang around.

There might not be a better defense for the Vikings to face this week, looking for a bounce back after Monday night’s debacle. But their own defensive struggles should be on display again too in a game where defense might be optional. Both squads are bottom-5 in the NFL for total yards and passing yards allowed, so look for another Lions game to get over this teased total.

NFL (0.5 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110)

Houston Texans +8.5 @ Chicago Bears: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

Why would you lay points with the Chicago Bears? This is undoubtedly one of the worst teams in the league, and their Week 1 upset of San Francisco should be thrown out of every handicapping model for how fluky it was. Notably, the Bears are 1-4 straight up and 0-5 ATS in their past 5 weeks after playing Green Bay, so asking them to cover as favorites is borderline lunacy.

I don’t see anything good coming from backing Chicago, but I do see something good coming from taking a big number with Houston. This Texans team is built to cover big spreads, and that’s exactly what we can turn it into with a teased number. Getting a full possession of cushion with Davis Mills, the master of keeping games close, is far too good to pass up in a spot where I’d expect Houston to win outright.

Atlanta Falcons +7 @ Seattle Seahawks: 3:25 PM CT on FOX

Speaking of one of the worst teams in the NFL, the Seattle Seahawks showed their true selves last week. This team is going to continue to be defined by offensive futility, and now coach Pete Carroll is talking about how he wants to run the ball more. That has historically been the sign of bad results to come for Seattle, and I think they’re in trouble here against a sneaky Atlanta team.

For all their own shortcomings, this Falcons team has put a scare in two NFC contenders and now gets an NFC doormat. The offense has looked functional in Arthur Smith’s system and now will see its softest opposition yet. Don’t be fooled by Seattle’s win over Denver in a massively hyped home spot, as they’ve played 6 quarters of awful football since a great first half to open the season. They just aren’t a full touchdown better than anyone at this point, so I love this teased number for the Falcons who I also see as likely to win outright.

NFL (0.75 Unit) Baltimore Ravens -3 @ New England Patriots (-110): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

This number almost seems too easy, which in the NFL has to scare you at least a little given how wild the past couple of weeks has been. But trap or no trap, I’m just not seeing how the Ravens don’t bounce back with a comfortable win here. Let’s not forget that they were up 35-14 on the current darlings of the league, the Dolphins, before an epic meltdown and unconscious performance from Tua.

Miami has the offense to pull off that black swan event, but the Patriots simply do not have what it takes to replicate it. Mac Jones executing Matt Patricia’s play calls does not instill much fear in me, regardless of how banged up the Ravens’ defense might be. And after a 31-point performance last week, the hot Baltimore offense is more than capable of covering up defensive shortcomings. Bill Belichick and the Patriots carry a brand name that’s undeserved at this point, so don’t let it scare you off this number.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Cincinnati Bengals Team Total Over 26.5 (-110): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

If not now, when? The Bengals’ offense simply has to break out of its funk this week regardless of the opponent, but fortunately for them, they get a great matchup. The root of Cincy’s problems on offense has been protection for Joe Burrow, an area everyone assumed had been cleaned up. To be fair, they’ve played two teams with fearsome pass rushes, and it has stymied their talented offense.

But the Jets rank towards the very bottom of the league in pass rush statistics, one more knock against their overall porous defense. If they give plenty of time and a clean pocket to Burrow, there’s simply too much talent at the skill positions for New York to handle. The Bengals seem motivated to get back on track here, Burrow has reportedly deleted social media to help get focused, and they should shred a bad Jets defense today.

NFL (0.75 Unit) San Francisco 49ers -1.5 @ Denver Broncos (-110): 7:20 PM CT on NBC

There’s been a massive line move in this game, flipping San Francisco to the favorite role behind the vast majority of smart money. I really can’t argue that especially given what we’ve seen from the Broncos through two weeks. A clueless coaching staff, a quarterback who doesn’t look anything like his old self, and key injuries for Denver have them in a tough position here.

Meanwhile, the 49ers getting Jimmy Garoppolo back under center has rejuvenated this team, and I’m back to believing they can compete for the NFC title. They’re also likely to get George Kittle back on the field, a big boost to an offense that should be primed to take off. Kyle Shanahan should coach circles around Nathaniel Hackett tonight, Russell Wilson is 2-9 ATS in his past 11 primetime games, and this is a cheap price to back a very good San Fran squad.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 867-726 ATS (+76 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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Photo Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

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