Locks
NFL (0.7 Unit) Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals -3 (-140): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video
I’m buying half a point here to get back on a flat number and closer to where this line started out. Smart money jumped all over Cincinnati when the Bengals opened as 2.5-point favorites, and with good reason, in my opinion.
It’s very tough for teams like Miami that start 3-0 ATS to keep it rolling, as those teams have gone 27-40-1 against the number in Week 4 since the 2003 season. The Dolphins are also just the 4th team in the past 10 years to start 3-0 both ATS and straight up yet be a dog in Week 4, with the other 3 all failing to cover.
Let’s also pump the brakes on the Fish for a moment and recognize that this is the flukiest undefeated team in recent memory. Two weeks ago, they beat the Baltimore Ravens by ending a 711-0 record for teams holding a 21-point 4th quarter lead. Last week they were obliterated in the box score and snuck out a win. Now their rookie coach has to get them prepared on a short week with travel.
As strange as the Bengals have looked this season, they need this game like blood and should be able to exploit a weak Miami secondary. Only having to lay a field goal here should be easy enough for them with so much working against the Dolphins here.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Tua Tagovailoa Under 255.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Much like his team’s record, Tua being the 2nd-leading passer in the NFL is quite the mirage. Without that insane 4th quarter against Baltimore, he would be much farther down the passing yards list. He also has an injured back, concussion, or both in what has been a strange injury report saga since Sunday.
Against a decimated Buffalo secondary last week, Tagovailoa managed just 186 yards through the air, no doubt a product of his health. If his injury is going to cause that kind of performance against a weak secondary, then a quietly strong Cincy defense should continue to hold him in check.
Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Tee Higgins Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
I mentioned above that Cincinnati should be able to exploit a weak Miami secondary, and that should mean more success from Higgins. It’s true, the Dolphins have had to face quarterbacks on an absolute tear the past two weeks. But the talent on this Bengals offense is easily on the same level as Buffalo and Baltimore, so they should pick apart a defense allowing the 2nd-most passing yards. Miami’s defense was also on the field for 90 plays last week (the equivalent of almost 1.5 games) in 100-degree heat and should be extra vulnerable on this short week.
Higgins has remained an integral part of this offense, seeing 17 targets the past two weeks after suffering a concussion in their first game. He cleared this number against a strong Dallas Cowboys defense and a New York Jets unit that surprisingly isn’t terrible. The Bengals still need to clean up their pass blocking, but overall should have much more success through the air tonight, getting Higgins over this number as a result.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 872-729 ATS (+76.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
