Vikings

Could Justin Jefferson Be Playing His Final Season In Minnesota?

Photo Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

After two historic seasons with the Minnesota Vikings, is it possible that Justin Jefferson could be playing his final season in purple?

Jefferson has had what can only be described as a meteoric rise to superstardom in the NFL. In just two seasons, he has become a consensus top-five wideout and has the numbers to prove it.

Next offseason, Jefferson will become eligible for a contract extension. However, this does not necessarily mean that the Vikings will pay him, as only one wide receiver picked in the first round since the 2011 rule change has earned an extension after their third season. That was Tavon Austin.

At the same time, there have never been any wide receivers who have torn up the NFL quite like Jefferson has in his first two seasons.

For argument’s sake, let’s assume Jefferson has another great season next year with 100 receptions for around 1,600 yards and 11 touchdowns. If that were to happen, it would be safe to assume that Jefferson would break another NFL record by becoming the highest-paid WR in league history.

But the looming question will be, who will make that possible? Can the Vikings afford that contract? Or will it be another team that trades for the superstar?

There were three blockbuster trades involving big-name wide receivers this offseason: Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and A.J. Brown. One thing remained consistent in all these trades: The teams could not afford the contract the players desired. Because of that, the players had all the leverage.

Some may ask, why couldn’t these teams afford to keep their star receivers?

In the case of the Green Bay Packers and the Kansas City Chiefs, it boiled down to each of them having one of the highest-paid players in the NFL on their teams (Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, respectively). Similarly for the Tennessee Titans, Ryan Tannehill has the largest cap hit among QBs for 2022.

Does any of that sound similar? You know, QBs getting a lot of money?

Well, it should, because Kirk Cousins is one of the highest-paid QBs in the NFL.

Now I’m not here to argue whether or not he is worth that money. That is a different conversation for another day. However, Cousins will incur a cap hit of $36.25 million in 2023. On top of that, players such as Adam Thielen, Harrison Smith, and Brian O’Neill each have $19 million-plus cap hits coming up in 2023.

Despite all of this, the Vikings would likely be able to afford to keep Jefferson on the books if his contract is in the $30 to $33 million per year range. That still would make him the highest-paid WR in the NFL.

But will the Vikings want to pay that? As I mentioned earlier, it is very rare to see a first-round selection earn a massive extension after their third season in the league. If the Vikings wanted to, they could refuse to give Jefferson an extension next offseason and try to keep him on his rookie contract.

Still, it’s hard to imagine Jefferson, who has all the leverage in this situation, would be okay with earning a $2.39 million salary. This means that next offseason, it should be expected that Jefferson and his agent will look for an extension, whether it comes from the Vikings or not.

Look at A.J. Brown‘s case. It is very similar to what I imagine could happen with Jefferson. The main difference being Brown was a second-round selection and is a little less accomplished.

Brown played his third season last year, and he wanted a new contract that represented his actual value to the team this offseason rather than the second-round rookie base salary he was scheduled for.

But when the Titans tried to appease their star wideout, they only made him more upset by giving him a contract that Brown felt was too cheap. “I wanted to stay, but the deal they offered was a low offer,” Brown told ESPN. “The deal they offered wasn’t even $20 million a year.”

Because of that, Brown essentially refused to play for the Titans, and Tennessee had no choice but to trade him while his value was still high.

This situation shows just how much control Justin Jefferson will have over his contract extension. If Jefferson and his agent don’t like the offer that the Vikings put on the table, they can refuse to play and look elsewhere, forcing the organization’s hand into trading him.

Nearly two and a half years ago, the Vikings were forced to trade Stefon Diggs, which was not contract-related. However, Vikings fans are no strangers to watching their star receiver force a trade out of town.

I’m not saying that Jefferson will leave because he has just as many reasons to stay. I’m just planting the seed so that when this contract negotiation goes up in flames next offseason, it won’t be a surprise.

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