If you’ve had your eyes and ears open to the latest happenings at TCO Performance Center, you’ve probably noticed a whole lot of commentary that sounds a little something like:
“Why aren’t the Vikings tanking next season in order to draft a quarterback near the top of the 2023 Draft?!?!?!?!?!”
Put aside the fact that no NFL team has ever decided to willingly part with eight or so Pro Bowl-caliber players on both sides of the ball in order to tank. (Seriously, if you can provide me with just one example where this has happened in NFL history, I’m all ears).
No. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, Kevin O’Connell and the new-look Minnesota Vikings aren’t adhering to this “suggestion” from the local talking heads. Instead of treating their roster like the 2020 Jacksonville Jaguars, 2019 Miami Dolphins, or 2017 Cleveland Browns, Minnesota’s decision-makers have a vision of competing in their inaugural season in purple, while simultaneously building towards the future.
While the divisional-rival Chicago Bears have decided to expedite their rebuild by trading away their greatest asset in edge rusher Khalil Mack to the Los Angeles Chargers with newcomer GM Ryan Poles, the Vikings have other plans. And rightfully so. A simple comparison between Chicago and Minnesota’s roster following the 2021 season would’ve told you that the Bears don’t have anywhere close to the talent required to justifiably make a push towards competing in 2022.
But do competitive rebuilds actually work for teams that can acknowledge that a Super Bowl might not be attainable with their existing roster?
As is the case with the Vikings, the root of almost every single competitive rebuild stems from the quarterback position. Is Minnesota in a position to realistically chase a Super Bowl in 2022 with Kirk Cousins? Probably not. But just because they’ll conclude next season along with 30 other teams that will ultimately fail to reach the NFL mountaintop, does that mean maximizing their roster in hopes of a divisional crown and/or a playoff run through the NFC is the wrong decision? Of course not.
Let’s take a look at a few recent examples of teams that lived in both the present and the future by making the playoffs and trading up for their successor at quarterback just a few months later in the draft.
2016 Kansas City Chiefs
After going 9-7 and 11-5 with just one combined playoff win to show for it in 2014 and 2015, the Chiefs realized that they had reached their ceiling with quarterback Alex Smith leading Andy Reid‘s offense. And with a 12-4 regular season record in ’16, the Chiefs went one-and-done after losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers at home in the divisional round.
Instead of standing pat with the 27th overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, the Chiefs moved up 17 spots in a trade with the Buffalo Bills in order to select Patrick Mahomes (ever heard of him?) with the 10th overall pick. Kansas City swapped ’17 first-rounders with Buffalo while also sending their third-rounder in ’17 and their first-rounder in ’18.
After a “redshirt” season with the Chiefs in ’17, Mahomes became the NFL MVP in his debut season as the starter in 2018.
2016 Houston Texans
Bill O’Brien‘s club had consecutive 9-7 campaigns in and lost in the wildcard round in 2015. Following a third consecutive 9-7 season, Houston finally broke through a won a playoff game in 2016 after beating the Oakland Raiders in the wildcard round. Despite reaching new heights in the O’Brien era with Brock Osweiler at quarterback, the Texans knew that they were in no position whatsoever to compete for championships with Denver’s former second-round pick at quarterback.
And with the 25th overall pick in the 2017 Draft, the Texans decided to be aggressive in pursuing a new face of their franchise. Houston moved up 13 spots in the draft by swapping first-rounders in ’17 with the Cleveland Browns while also surrendering their first round pick in 2018. And with the 12th pick in the 2017 Draft, Houston selected former Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson.
2019 Green Bay Packers
Coming off consecutive nine-loss seasons with Mike McCarthy as head coach, the Packers pivoted to Matt LaFleur as their head coach in ’19. And while the Packers achieved immediate success by going 13-3 in LaFleur’s debut season, Green Bay was shellacked by the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship game.
Although future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers was still on the roster, whispers started to circulate that his best football was behind him after a third-straight season where he failed to record a passer rating greater than 97.6. And coming off his age-36 season, the Packers brass shocked the football world when they traded up in the 2020 Draft to select quarterback Jordan Love. The Packers moved up four spots from 30th overall to 26th by parting with their 2020 fourth-rounder to the Miami Dolphins to pick the former Utah State quarterback.
Rodgers proceeded to go scorched Earth — both on and off the field — and Love will likely never be passed the torch as Rodgers’ successor by the time his rookie contract is up.
2020 Chicago Bears
Former Bears head coach Matt Nagy went 12-4 in his debut season back in 2018 with former second overall pick Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback. But following consecutive 8-8 seasons that resulted in yet another loss in the wildcard round in 2020, Chicago admitted defeat with Trubisky.
The Bears moved up from 20th overall to 11th in a trade with the New York Giants. Along with their 20th pick and fifth-rounder in the 2021 Draft, the Bears gave the Giants their 2022 first and fourth-round picks to select former Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields with the 11th pick in the 2021 Draft.
A brief history lesson over the past five years will show you that NFL teams are more than capable of both making the playoffs and demonstrating urgency with succession planning at quarterback. And while folks in the Twin Cities tend to forget that it’s possible to successfully live in both worlds, this particular blueprint doesn’t appear to be lost on Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell.
Whether the talking heads like it or not, the Vikings are doing everything in their power to take this roster as far as they can in 2022. And if/when the inevitable happens and Minnesota fails to win the Super Bowl next season, don’t be surprised if the Vikings decide to play the role of aggressor in the 2023 NFL Draft by trading up in the first round to select Cousins’ successor at quarterback.
That way, Cousins can play out the final year of his contract in Minnesota before the Vikings hand the keys of the franchise over to said rookie for the 2024 season.
So sit back and enjoy the show as the Vikings enter the 21st Century with Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell leading the way. And have a little bit of faith that this new regime can take a page out of the recent competitive rebuild blueprints throughout the NFL. Because make no mistake about it: This roster is in no way, shape, or form in a position to be tanking in 2022. Nor were they ever in a position to do so following the mediocre finish to Rick Spielman and Mike Zimmer’s iron-fisted tenure.
