Earlier this year, the Minnesota Vikings declined to re-sign Tyler Conklin. The decision didn’t seem especially consequential at the time, especially with Irv Smith Jr. returning from injury. Through six games, though, tight end play has been an obvious weak point in the offense — weak enough that several tight end trade rumors have begun swirling around Vikings Twitter. Along with those trade speculations, it’s also fair to wonder if Kwesi Adofoh-Mensah has made his first potential mistake as general manager.
Hindsight is 20/20, of course. When Conklin signed with the New York Jets on a three-year, $20 million contract, most fans agreed it was perfectly fine to let him walk. After all, Smith was healthy again. Besides, $7 million a year seemed too steep a price for a backup tight end. There probably weren’t too many fans dying on the Tyler Conklin hill, and he left the team without much resistance. Smith was on many projected “Most Improved Viking” and “Breakout Player” lists. Letting Conklin go felt like the right thing to do. Ultimately, the Vikings signed former Los Angeles Rams tight end Johnny Mundt for some spare change to pair alongside Smith. However, it’s safe to say that the tight end room has not met expectations this season.
However, Conklin has had an excellent start in New York. He is second on the team in targets and receptions and third in receiving yards. He’s playing 82% of offensive snaps, proving he can handle the starting workload. For comparison, Smith has never played more than 64% of offensive snaps in any season, and he hasn’t truly shown he deserves more. Unlike the last few players the Jets have tried to poach off the Viking discard pile like Pat Elflein or Dru Samia, Conklin has been one the Vikings might regret losing.
Sure, Conklin isn’t dominating the league. But there’s no question that he’s been worth the money for the Jets. Adofo-Mensah’s other off-season decisions, such as the Za’Darius Smith signing, have been viewed positively. But the choice to let Conklin leave in free agency for a modest fee could be his first slip-up.
The Vikings have been running a three-tight-end rotation this year to fill the Conklin void. Simply put, Smith was meant to be the receiving tight end, Ben Ellefson was the blocking tight end before he was placed on injured reserve, and Mundt did a little of everything. Ideally, Smith would be able to handle all the responsibilities as a full-time starter, but injuries and lack of execution have derailed those career aspirations.
It’s looking less and less likely the Vikings will want to bring him back next season unless he’s willing to accept an extremely team-friendly deal. The issues don’t stop with Smith, though. Mundt has had his fair share of struggles as well. Those bad drops are one area sure to give you nightmares. The team doesn’t have many drops on the year, but Smith and Mundt account for 40% of them.
Minnesota’s designed rollout game is one big difference that falls mainly on the tight ends’ shoulders. They are averaging -0.20 Expected Points Added (EPA) per play on boots, which is significantly lower than last year. Even though the Vikings run this type of play more than anyone else, their success rate is abysmal compared to the previous season.
Conklin was one significant factor in their previous success. He was often Kirk Cousins’ security blanket, and many of these designed rollouts were drawn up for him. This year, Cousins hasn’t had that same reliability from the tight end group. Drops and lack of separation have been issues the group hasn’t been able to overcome when teams take away Justin Jefferson. Not to say that Conklin is a perfect fix for all these issues. However, he would provide some familiarity and consistency to the tight end room, which can’t seem to gain any traction this season.
Overall, Adofo-Mensah has done a solid job in his first season as general manager. But it may have been unwise to let Conklin go. Most likely, he will either be paying Irv Smith Jr. big bucks for mediocre play, or he will be starting from scratch and looking to the draft, free agency, or a trade. We all know how dangerous that can be (*ahem* Chris Herndon). Don’t worry, the bad man Rick Spielman can’t hurt us anymore. Either way, time will tell if Conklin ends up being the one that got away for the Vikings.
