The Minnesota Vikings host the going-nowhere-fast Indianapolis Colts on Saturday afternoon. This is a team that has lost six of their past seven, with a leader who has more experience as a commentator than a football coach, and a comical carousel of once-upon-a-time quarterbacks. Skoldiers would be hard pressed to find a more quintessential get-right matchup after falling to the Lions in Detroit last week, in particular for Minnesota’s defense. The Colts enter Week 15 with the 31st-ranked scoring offense and are dead last in turnovers. If Ed Donatell’s defense can’t respond — and in a big way — against this team, go ahead and sound the alarm.
Since Andrew Luck’s shocking retirement in the days leading up to the 2019 season, the Colts have rolled out a different starting quarterback in each of the past four years.
- Jacoby Brissett
- Phillip Rivers
- Carson Wentz
- Matt Ryan
Jim Irsay, general manager Chris Ballard, and recently fired head coach Frank Reich have continuously demonstrated irrational confidence in their roster by adhering to the old adage of We’re Just A Quarterback Away. Despite their in-house beliefs, the Colts went one-and-done in the 2020 playoffs after an 11-5 regular season, and have resided in mediocrity with seven and nine win campaigns before bottoming out in 2022.
Granted, it’s a mighty big ask for an NFL team to replace a franchise quarterback overnight. But to have the same process — by the same decision makers — for three years of wheeling out has-been quarterbacks and to expect different results? That, my friends, is the definition of NFL insanity.
The Colts represent a trap that 31 other NFL franchises are terrified of falling into — no realistic chance of reaching the mountaintop and not bad enough to be rewarded with a top pick in the NFL draft. The cherry on top is that the Colts are arguably the most boring team in the NFL since Luck’s retirement.
Come to think of it, the Vikings are no strangers themselves to what the Colts have been experiencing over the past four years. As long as Kirk Cousins doesn’t pull a Luck and shock the world by retiring before the 2023 season, he will be the Vikings’ longest-tenured quarterback since Fran Tarkenton from 1972 to 1978.
But with Cousins getting up there in age — he’ll be 35 next year — and his contract set to expire after 2023, how do the Vikings and their new regime figure out a way to leave those quarterback carousels in the past with Rick Spielman and not become the present-day Colts?
The succession planning has to start immediately in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Maybe you’re thinking, “But the Skols are 10-3! They’ll be picking way too late in the draft to get a real quarterback in the draft. Plus, 35 isn’t that old for a quarterback!”
I’ll tackle the latter before we get to the former. Cousins is in the midst of the worst statistical season of his career since becoming a full-time starter back in 2015. His 91.2 passer rating and 6.9 yards/attempt are career-lows. Only in 2017 did Cousins experience a worse completion percentage than the 65.5 rate this year. He’s barely on pace to eclipse his career-low 25 touchdowns from 2016.
We can’t dismiss the fact that the Vikings are winning games and Cousins continues to shine in crunch time. But, considering all the resources that Cousins has at his disposal with Justin Jefferson and Kevin O’Connell, it’s more than fair to expect significantly better play out of the quarterback with the third-highest cap hit in the league this season.
Circling back on the misconception that the Vikings will be picking too high in the draft to select a quarterback in the first round. Recent history has been extremely kind to fellow competitive rebuilders — as Kwesi Adofo-Mensah proclaimed his Vikings to be back in the offseason. A handful of teams have successfully lived in both worlds by not only accumulating a winning record, making the playoffs, and/or winning their division, but also displaying urgency by trading up in the draft just a few months later after identifying their long-term answer at quarterback.
- 2016 Kansas City Chiefs
- 12-4, AFC West champions
- Moved up 17 spots in the 2017 draft for Patrick Mahomes at No. 10 overall
- 2016 Houston Texans
- 9-7, AFC South champions
- Moved up 13 spots in the 2017 draft for Deshaun Watson at No. 12 overall
- 2017 Buffalo Bills
- 9-7, AFC wild-card berth
- Buffalo originally moved up from No. 21 overall to No. 12 overall following a trade with the Cincinnati Bengals involving offensive tackle Cordy Glenn
- Moved up five spots in the 2018 draft for Josh Allen at No. 7 overall
- 2017 Baltimore Ravens
- 9-7, just missed AFC wild-card berth
- Moved up 20 spots in the 2018 draft for Lamar Jackson at No. 32 overall
- 2020 Chicago Bears
- 8-8, NFC wild-card berth
- Moved up nine spots in the 2021 draft for Justin Fields at No. 11 overall
Now that we know five other teams have shown that you can successfully check both boxes by winning in the now and preparing for the future, let’s take a look at which quarterbacks make the most sense for Minnesota in the upcoming draft.
Will Levis — Kentucky
Probably the most polarizing player in this year’s draft. At 6’4″ and 230 lbs., Levis is a tank in the open field with his mobility. If you’re chasing his ceiling, the player he is most often compared to is Josh Allen. Draft prognosticators have him going anywhere from top-five to a Day 2 selection.
What makes him so intriguing for the Vikings is that he was wildly successful playing in former Los Angeles Rams assistant Liam Coen’s scheme in Kentucky. Coen brought Sean McVay’s system to Lexington while serving as the offensive coordinator in 2021. O’Connell and Coen were on the same Rams staff in 2020, and Coen replaced O’Connell as the Rams’ OC this season.
Levis’ familiarity with this offense should make for an easier transition than most rookie quarterbacks, especially if he can spend his first season red-shirting behind Cousins.
Anthony Richardson — Florida
Richardson possesses the same body type as Levis, but with much more explosiveness as a runner. He led all SEC quarterbacks with five 30-yard runs this past season. He has a rare blend of size, speed, and arm talent but is widely regarded as a quarterback who could stand to benefit from spending his rookie season developing behind a proven starter.
To be perfectly clear, the expectation should be for Cousins to remain the starter in 2023, regardless of whether or not the Vikings kick-start their succession planning by spending a first-round pick on a quarterback in the upcoming draft. But with Justin Jefferson set to potentially sign the richest contract for a wide receiver in league history this offseason, Adofo-Mensah and the front office essentially have no choice but to expedite their quest for a long-term, cost-effective signal caller for the post-Cousins era beginning in 2024.
The Indianapolis Colts are a perfect example of what not to do at the quarterback position. And Saturday’s contest should serve as a reminder for both the decision makers in Minnesota’s front office, as well as Skoldiers who are justified in being caught up in the moment of a miraculous 10-3 season and eventual NFC North crown.
