With all signs pointing to third-string, 2022 seventh-round rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson getting the starting nod for the Miami Dolphins in Week 6, Minnesota Vikings fans can breathe a sigh of relief, right? After all, the Vikings have been a fortunate bunch this season at the expense of their opponents. First, the Green Bay Packers were missing both of their offensive tackles and top wide receiver in Week 1. Then the New Orleans Saints were without their starting quarterback, three-time Pro Bowl guard, and All-Pro running back and receiver when they drew the Vikings in Week 4.
But before you count your proverbial chickens in the Vikings’ win column before they hatch, might I encourage you to exercise some caution? Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel is no stranger to drawing the short stick with injury misfortune, particularly at quarterback. Before taking the Dolphins job during the offseason, McDaniel was Kyle Shanahan’s run-game coordinator and/or offensive coordinator from 2017-21. During McDaniel’s time in San Francisco, the 49ers were forced to start a backup quarterback on 30 (!!!) different occasions.
- Nick Mullens recorded a combined 16 starts from 2018 to 2020
- C.J. Beathard recorded a combined 12 starts from 2017, 2018, and 2020
- Trey Lance recorded two starts in 2021
Across those 30 starts made by backup signal callers, the 49ers went 8-22.
Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell experienced the wrath of a shorthanded McDaniel not too long ago. In Week 12 of 2020, Mullens and the Niners went into SoFi Stadium and beat Sean McVay and O’Connell’s Los Angeles Rams, 23-20. This was a Rams team that ended up going 10-6 and winning a wild card game in Seattle before losing in the divisional round.
The long and short of it is that McDaniel is arguably the most creative mind on the planet as it pertains to the run game. And McDaniel’s opponents know better than to count him out when his offense isn’t operating at full strength with its starting quarterback(s) sidelined.
Remember San Francisco’s win at Lambeau Field against the Packers in the 2021 divisional round? In case you forgot, here’s McDaniel’s run-game wizardry at work. That’s All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams going in motion and serving as a lead blocker to help move the chains on a critical third down.
And although McDaniel no longer has Williams to scheme for, he has an eerie doppelganger of a left tackle in Terron Armstead. Armstead’s availability for Week 6 is in question, however, after the three-time Pro Bowl left tackle exited last week’s game against the New York Jets with a toe injury.
Armstead only playing 12% of the snaps last week against the Jets didn’t stop McDaniel’s ground game from executing at a high level. The Dolphins recorded a season-high 137 rushing yards. McDaniel’s longtime running back from their time together in San Francisco, Raheem Mostert, led the way with 113 yards on 18 carries.
McDaniel busted out all of the old tricks for Mostert last week:
- Inside tosses under center
- Outside zone
- Occupying linebackers’ eyes with orbit motion from Tyreek Hill
- Counters out of 21-personnel
- Tosses out of shotgun
- And getting Mostert on the perimeter with jet-sweeps
As a former track star at the University of Purdue, Mostert’s speed is as real as it gets. Regardless of who is playing quarterback for McDaniel’s offense that particular week, opposing defenses need to mind their Ps and Qs when defending him and McDaniel’s running game.
In case you’re new to this here Skoldier game, Mostert had plenty of success — along with Tevin Coleman — gashing Mike Zimmer’s defense in the 2019 divisional round.
This week’s matchup is particularly interesting for Minnesota’s defense. Over the past three weeks, the Vikings have been operating as one of the league’s most difficult defenses to run on. Since Week 3, Ed Donatell’s unit ranks seventh in yards per carry allowed at 3.8 — and this has come against some of the league’s most effective running games. Here’s how Minnesota’s past three opponents rank in yards per carry so far in 2022.
As a whole, yards per carry is a statistic that tends to be inflated due to big plays. But since Minnesota’s defense isn’t allowing the likes of Taysom Hill and/or David Montgomery to generate big plays on the ground, you’ll find the Vikings near the top of the league over the past three weeks in this department.
Throughout the season, the Vikings have been one of the stingiest defenses against big plays on the ground. According to Football Outsiders, the Vikings rank fourth in Open Field Yards at 0.36. Per Football Outsiders, this means “Yards which this team’s running backs earn more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, divided by total running back carries.”
This statistic is critical against Mostert and McDaniel’s running game. The reason why Mostert is so adored by Kyle Shanahan and his minions is because of his big-play ability when he gets into the open field.
The natural counter-argument that pokes holes Minnesota’s dominant efforts against the run is that the Detroit Lions were missing D’Andre Swift for most of the game and the Saints were without Alvin Kamara. But as run-game maestros such as Kyle and McDaniel have shown over the years, running back is probably the third-most important aspect of having an effective running game. These two coaches have made it work with a comical carousel at running back — most recently with Jeff Wilson in San Francisco. If you were to ask McDaniel or Shanahan, offensive line play and scheme will always trump having a marquee running back.
If Minnesota plans on leaving South Beach with their fourth-straight victory on Sunday, the defense will need to continue to dominate the line of scrimmage and shut down Miami’s running game. That way, rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson will be tasked with picking up third-and-longs against Minnesota’s pass rushers such as Za’Darius Smith, D.J. Wonnum, Dalvin Tomlinson, and Danielle Hunter.
If Miami finds success on early downs with its running game, that spells disaster for Minnesota’s secondary. If the Vikings were to find themselves defending Miami in too many second-or-third-and-shorts, this is where Miami’s nightmarish speed with Hill and Jaylen Waddle can get behind defensive backs off of play-action.
Limiting the big plays from Mostert will be paramount. But as long as Donatell’s defense can keep the Dolphins in third-and-long throughout the afternoon, the Vikings should be able to enter their Week 7 bye with a commanding lead in the NFC North.
