Since the beginning of the offseason, fans have debated whether the Minnesota Vikings should shore up the trenches by adding another run-stuffing defensive tackle. Former Chicago Bears defensive tackles Akiem Hicks and Eddie Goldman were rumored as potential Vikings free-agent targets, but nothing ever materialized.
However, the Vikings are still looking to sign a veteran defensive tackle. On July 7, Darren Wolfson noted that he would not be surprised if Minnesota added a big body to the defensive line. He said that Ndamukong Suh‘s representatives firmly believe that a Vikings offer will come before the start of training camp.
By signing Suh, the Vikings would be adding some extra beef to the defensive line. Rob Searles made a compelling argument, asserting that Suh was a big reason the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had the NFL’s best run defense in 2020. While there is some truth to this, I don’t think Suh provides enough of an impact to justify the Vikings giving him a sizable contract.
Searles often used team stats in his analysis. That’s fine when you’re judging the defense as a whole, but using team statistics to define the quality of a single player can be misleading.
Tampa Bay’s defense isn’t like the Los Angeles Rams, who are powered by two or three elite players. They have myriad talented players on their front seven, which includes Lavonte David, Vita Vea, Devin White, Shaquil Barrett, and Jason Pierre-Paul. The Bucs’ dominance against the run is a collective effort. Thus, it’s difficult to determine how much of an influence Suh had on the defense’s overall performance.
That’s where Suh’s lackluster PFF grades start to become magnified. I know Pro Football Focus receives a lot of criticism for their grading system, and their grades aren’t the end-all-be-all. Still, they do a good job of measuring individual performances, especially for offensive and defensive linemen. Considering that Suh is 35 years old and plays one of the most physically demanding positions in football, monitoring regression is important. Suh’s overall PFF grade has declined every year for the past five seasons.
Think about this from Jason Licht’s perspective. With Tom Brady at the helm, the Buccaneers are in win-now mode. If you truly felt like Suh could have a significant impact on helping your team win the Super Bowl, wouldn’t you have found a way to keep him on the roster? If the answer was yes, Suh would not be a free agent in July. The Bucs seemed rather content with letting him walk. They ended up drafting Logan Hall as his replacement in the second round.
Suh wasn’t worth the price for Tampa Bay, so why should the Vikings think any differently? Adding Suh to a Vikings defense that already has plenty of talent won’t move the needle enough to warrant paying him the money he will command. For reference, the Buccaneers signed him to a one-year, $9 million last offseason. He may take a slight discount to land on another roster, but it is doubtful that he accepts less than $6 million a year.
Even if Suh took a discount to sign with the Vikings, defensive tackles rarely raise a team’s ceiling. In 2018, the Vikings added Sheldon Richardson on a one-year, $8 million deal. With Everson Griffen, Danielle Hunter, and Linval Joseph still in their prime, the Vikings’ defensive line was among the league’s most fearsome. That year, Minnesota finished the season 8-7-1 and failed to reach the playoffs.
If the Vikings are looking for someone who can come in and be a rotational run-stuffing defensive tackle on early downs, they could sign Linval Joseph for half the price. Joseph, 33, had a base salary of $5.5 million during his injury-riddled campaign with the Los Angeles Chargers last year. Unlike Suh, I could see Joseph taking near the veteran minimum to sign with the Vikings, and he would be a much more positive influence on some of the young guys.
In the grand scheme of things, the Vikings would be wiser to save their cap space for future extensions. The overall difference in production between other available free agents versus Suh, 35, simply isn’t significant enough to be paying double for it.
