When the Minnesota Vikings travel to face the Buffalo Bills next season, it will be a big matchup on the schedule. Forget the fact the Vikings will be going up against one of the top teams in the AFC. The real battle may be in the parking lot.
Two years after the Vikings traded Stefon Diggs to Buffalo, Vikings fans will claim victory for getting Justin Jefferson. Bills fans will applaud Diggs as the missing piece to their offense. Both fans will lament their Super Bowl losses, and flaming tables will be involved. But before anyone shotguns a beer, they’ll know this trade still hasn’t played out.
This week, the trade that won’t die got another chapter. The Bills forked out a four-year contract extension for Diggs that includes $70 million in guaranteed money. That’s more than the $65 million guaranteed that Davante Adams received from the Las Vegas Raiders. It is also just shy of the $72 million guaranteed that Tyreek Hill got from the Miami Dolphins.
Some will say that the Vikings fleeced the Bills because they got a cheaper version of Diggs. But like everything else with this trade, there’s another layer.
The benefits of acquiring Jefferson are obvious. The Vikings drafted a 21-year-old receiver who played in one of the greatest college offenses of all time. No receiver has more receiving yards than Jefferson has put up in the first two seasons of his professional career. He created his own dance move.
Jefferson is also doing this at a ridiculous price point. His $3.5 million cap hit for the upcoming season allows the Vikings to load up elsewhere on the roster. When taking this into account, Jefferson has not only been a replacement for Diggs. He has been better than Diggs.
Consider what the Bills did to get Diggs. Nobody could have predicted that Jefferson would have been there with the 22nd-overall pick. Buffalo could have kept their selection, scooped him up, and paired him with Josh Allen, who was also on a rookie deal.
At this point, the Bills would have had the best of both worlds. Not only would they have an elite target on a rookie contract, but they would also have a quarterback on a rookie contract. Instead of losing some players to free agency, the Bills would have had room to retain their talent while hitting free agency to create a juggernaut.
Although Diggs has become a star, this makes it seem like the Vikings won the trade. But the Bills have a compelling argument by just being successful.
When Diggs arrived in Buffalo, Allen wasn’t a sure thing. After completing 58% of his passes during the 2019 season, many wondered how he would mesh with a receiver who just forced his way out of Minnesota. One season later, Allen’s completion percentage jumped to 69%.
One argument is that Allen’s improvement would have never happened without a target like Diggs. The other side is that the Bills’ success since Diggs arrived in Buffalo isn’t a coincidence.
The Bills have compiled a 24-9 record since the Diggs trade. They’ve won a pair of AFC East titles and have become a legitimate championship contender. Although Harrison Phillips left for Minnesota, Buffalo has stockpiled its roster and even found enough money to give Allen a lucrative contract extension.
It’s not hard to see the Bills winning a Super Bowl in the next couple of years, which should be the goal of every front office.
That hasn’t been the case in Minnesota. Despite Jefferson’s greatness, the Vikings have gone 18-19 over the past two seasons. They filled their roster with several high-priced players, but many of them are either approaching or well into their 30s. Even in a disappointing NFC, the Vikings have come up short of the playoffs, limiting Jefferson’s impact.
Things aren’t going to get easier. Jefferson is due for an extension next offseason, which will likely eclipse Diggs’s guaranteed money from the Bills. With Kirk Cousins set to make $36.2 million in 2023, squeezing Jefferson’s contract under the cap will be challenging.
It gets even more difficult down the road. At some point, the Vikings will need to hit on a rookie quarterback to keep Jefferson and improve their roster. If they choose the wrong quarterback, they will have bungled another window, leading to Jefferson’s eventual departure from Minnesota.
That doom-and-gloom scenario isn’t the most likely one. But it’s something that we need to consider when evaluating the trade. For now, both teams are where they want to be. They both have elite receivers. They both have a quarterback they believe can lead them on a playoff run. And they both have rosters with the highly-compensated players they want.
Does this mean the Vikings are legitimate contenders? There’s still work to do. But it also means that the bickering with Bills fans can be shelved.
