Vikings

The Vikings Don't Need To Spend Big In Free Agency To Upgrade Their Roster

Photo Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

With the NFL’s legal tampering window opening on Monday, several big-name free agents had already inked deals ahead of Wednesday’s official beginning of the new league year. Fans of the Minnesota Vikings may have been disappointed to see a lack of splashy moves. 

So far, the only noteworthy signings from Minnesota have been former Buffalo Bills defensive tackle Harrison Phillips for three years at $19.5 million, and former Arizona Cardinals linebacker Jordan Hicks for two years at $10 million. Many of the market’s top guards have already been snagged by other teams, leaving fans frustrated.

Positions like guard, edge rusher, and cornerback are high on the team’s wishlist. But while players at these positions are getting signed by other teams, the Vikings may be wise to sit and wait on players who fit not only on their roster but in their salary cap.

However, when looking at recent history, swinging for the fences and landing a big-money free agent may not resonate in the regular season quite like it does in March. Instead of finding value for a short-term deal, teams often sign players to long-term contracts, never to see them play out the term of the deal.

Because the Vikings are in the market for starters at guard, edge, and cornerback, I looked back at the most expensive contracts given to these three positions over the past three years. This accounted for their average annual value, or AAV as Spotrac refers to it, as opposed to the total dollar amount over the life of the contract. For the value players, I looked at players who fell outside of the top-five most lucrative AAVs at their position in a given season. These usually coincided with shorter deals that have a likelier chance of being played out.

Highest-Paid Free-Agent Guards Since 2019
  • 2021: Kansas City Chiefs sign Joe Thuney, five years/$50 million
  • 2020: Denver Broncos sign Graham Glasgow, four years/$44 million
  • 2019: Tennessee Titans sign Rodger Saffold, four years/$44 million

Thuney and Saffold have been solid in Kansas City and Denver, respectively. Thuney ranked eighth in Pro Football Focus’ overall blocking grades among guards in 2021. Saffold was tied for 24th in 2020, but he tallied a pass-blocking grade of 44.8. Whether that production is worthy of such lucrative contracts remains to be seen. Many analysts believe that the value of good guard play is lower than that of other offensive positions.

Meanwhile, Glasgow has only started 20 of 33 games since signing in Denver. According to PFF, his play has taken a downturn as well. After posting 70-plus grades in his final three seasons in Detroit, Glasgow turned in a 68.5 grade in 2020 and 65.1 in 2021. With two years remaining on his deal, it’s safe to say that Glasgow was a miss, despite being the highest-paid free-agent guard (per year) in 2020.

Who They Could Have Had

2020: Washington Commanders sign Wes Schweitzer, three years/$13.5 million

According to PFF, Schweitzer missed the final six games of the 2021 season due to an ankle injury, but he still ranked ninth among all guards in overall blocking. That was after tying for 19th in overall grade in 2020 when he played all 16 games, including Washington’s playoff game. There is no buyer’s remorse for the Commanders. Denver could have saved money while getting better production with a player like Schweitzer.

Highest-Paid Free-Agent Edge Rushers Since 2019
  • 2019: Detroit Lions sign Trey Flowers, five years/$90 million 
  • 2021: Tennessee Titans sign Bud Dupree, five years/$82.5 million
  • 2019: Green Bay Packers sign Za’Darius Smith, four years/$66 million

Smith made an instant impact for the Packers, totaling 26 sacks in 2019 and 2020. Unfortunately, injuries derailed his 2021 season, and Green Bay released the linebacker before free agency. Dupree only played in 11 games in 2021, notching only three sacks. Injuries derailed his season as well.

But Flowers was reunited with his former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia in Detroit. Flowers started 15 games in 2019 but only mustered seven sacks. Injuries caught up with him, too, and he would only play in 14 total games over the next two years. However, his on-field production still lacked, as he only accumulated 3.5 total sacks over 2020 and 2021. Last week, the Lions released him to save over $10 million in cap space.

Who They Could Have Had

2019: Tampa Bay Buccaneers sign Shaq Barrett, one year/$4 million

Barrett was a decent role player in his first four seasons in Denver. He played in 61 games and had 14 sacks. But once signed by the Bucs, Barrett exploded, starting all 16 games and getting 19.5 sacks in 2019. Barrett received another one-year deal for his performance, but this time for $15.8 million.  

He started 30 games over the next two seasons (receiving another extension before 2021), adding 18 more sacks as part of a ferocious Tampa Bay pass rush. Not many could have predicted Barrett’s output as a Buc, but he was still a valuable addition at $4 million in 2019.

Highest-Paid Free-Agent Corners Since 2019
  • 2020: Miami Dolphins sign Byron Jones, five years/$82.5 million
  • 2020: New York Giants sign James Bradberry, three years/$43.5 million
  • 2020: Cincinnati Bengals sign Trae Waynes, three years/$42 million

Since signing with the Dolphins, Jones has played in 30 games the past two seasons. However, he only ranked 49th in total coverage grade among corners who played at least 50% of possible coverage snaps, grading at 63.5. Bradberry was a little ahead of Jones, tied for 41st with a grade of 65.0.

But neither has been quite the disaster that former Vikings first-round corner Trae Waynes has been in Cincinnati. Waynes has played a total of five regular-season games for the Bengals, and all five games came in the 2021 season. He played in all four playoff games during Cincinnati’s Super Bowl run, but only on special teams. Even then, he only totaled 13 snaps altogether in the postseason. He has yet to force a turnover in Cincinnati and has only tallied 12 combined tackles. As of the time of this article, he hasn’t restructured.

Who They Could Have Had

2020: Indianapolis Colts sign Xavier Rhodes, one year/$3 million

Rhodes joined Waynes on the free-agent market following the 2019 Vikings season. Rhodes had struggled with injuries in 2018 and 2019 and wasn’t the same shutdown cornerback that he had been earlier in his career. 

But even though he was older than Waynes, he came at a significantly lower price. Waynes had never proven he could be anything more than a serviceable No. 2 corner in Minnesota, but the Bengals gambled on him. The Colts took a flier on an older-yet-proven commodity, and it paid dividends

Rhodes was graded as PFF’s 12th-best corner in coverage in 2020 when he posted a coverage grade of 77.5. Indianapolis would re-sign Rhodes in 2021, and even though his play took a dip, he still posted a 61.8 defensive grade in 13 games. His 2021 contract was still only for $4.7 million. He got a pay increase in 2020, and the Colts got more than they could have asked for.

Bottom Line

NFL free agency is an exciting time because known commodities are moving around and making headlines. But many of these players never play out the entirety of their contracts. Even if they do, they probably won’t have the impact that their lucrative contracts indicate.

Vikings fans may be antsy to see change just for the sake of seeing change. That’s understandable two months removed from the end of the regular season. But overspending may not be the wisest move in building a winner once the 2022 regular season begins.

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