For a man who seems risk-averse and allergic to excitement, Kirk Cousins could soon find himself at the center of a circus act. If he does his job and elevates his play under Kevin O’Connell, he can avoid the flaming hoops and acrobatics. But if he doesn’t, the Minnesota Vikings will have to make a difficult quarterback decision swiftly.
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell have inherited a high-octane offense, but they need to make sure they have the right engine to get it up to speed. Was Cousins held back by a conservative offensive scheme and a rotating cast of offensive coordinators? Or is he just what he is at this point in his career? A mid-30s quarterback with Hall of Fame numbers and a .500 career winning percentage.
That’s the $45 million question Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell face.
As I see it, the Vikings have three options:
Treat Cousins as the franchise quarterback. Extend Cousins, 33, and hope he plays well enough that he’s the immediate solution for the next few years. Rick Spielman took this approach with Cousins, meaning the Vikings would essentially be parroting the previous regime and hope a coaching change brings out the best in Cousins.
Treat Cousins as a bridge quarterback. Extend Cousins and try to develop a quarterback under him. That means spending draft capital on signal-callers, rather than focusing on more weapons for Cousins, bolstering the offensive line, and filling out a defense that has experienced a lot of turnover.
Turn Cousins into an asset. Trade Cousins now and replace him with a journeyman quarterback, a high draft pick, or Kellen Mond. The Vikings are attempting to sell high and get draft picks for the future while ensuring that the offense remains functional in the present.
Cousins the franchise quarterback
At first blush, treating Cousins as the franchise quarterback seems like the least risky move. He’s the incumbent, and he will count $45 million against the cap next year. O’Connell worked with him in Washington. And Cousins is familiar with the receivers, never gets injured, and takes a professional approach to gameday preparation.
However, the Vikings risk falling victim to the sunk cost fallacy. O’Connell naturally advocated for Cousins in the interview. What else was he going to say? The Vikings have already invested over $100 million in Cousins, and he consistently puts up Pro Bowl numbers. It’s hard to find alternatives for him, even with his flaws. In 2017, Cousins played well enough in the Sean McVay scheme under O’Connell that Minnesota cut him an $84 million check a year later.
But by keeping Cousins under center, the new regime runs the risk of immediately turning a significant segment of the fanbase against them. Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell are supposed to represent something new and fun. The forward pass! Three wide receivers! Passes to set up the pass!
Adofo-Mensah is a former day trader who was in the San Francisco 49ers’ front office when they went from a .500 team to an NFC Champion. He helped breathe life into the moribund Cleveland Browns franchise. And O’Connell? He coached under a guy who conducted the quarantine draft from a beach house and selected players who broke football.
These guys are cool, they’re winners, and they have the fans on their side. The quickest way to turn that around? Give the same stale product they’ve seen for the last two years. Fair or unfair, Cousins is associated with .500 football right now.
Cousins the bridge quarterback
The Vikings can go into next year with Cousins under center without fully committing to him. However, it’s inherently risky because they will need to extend Cousins. And to get him to a reasonable number, they’ve got to convince him that it’s to help a team that might trade him in a year.
Cousins has openly stated that he wants to stay in Minnesota, and he has praised O’Connell. Football is a ruthless business. But teams need to act professionally with their players or risk tarnishing their reputation with agents and star players around the league. That’s especially true for new regimes trying to establish a culture and maintain a player-friendly environment.
If Cousins takes a hometown discount, only to be traded in a year, there will be repercussions. But the upside is that the Vikings can actively draft quarterbacks under him and try to find the next Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott. It’s less risky than burning it all down only to draft the next Baker Mayfield or Jared Goff. But it’s also unlikely to find a franchise quarterback outside of the top few picks.
A full rebuild isn’t wise with how much talent is on the roster. It’s part of why Minnesota was the most attractive job opening this offseason. Tank jobs offer no certainty of future success and can wreck a culture. By treating Cousins as the bridge quarterback, they’re hoping to draft and develop a better quarterback without completely starting over. It’s a potentially wise move, but it’s also perilous.
Cousins the trade asset
The Denver Broncos or Pittsburgh Steelers may feel they are a quarterback away from contending and move significant draft capital to get Cousins. Both are marquee teams with national fanbases that don’t want to sit through a rebuild.
The Vikings could also eat part of Cousins’ salary by increasing his bonus, opening up more potential trade partners. But that means the new management would be asking the Wilfs to pay Cousins to leave after they fired Rick Spielman and Mike Zimmer with term left on their contracts.
There is also no guarantee that the Vikings will find their franchise quarterback with the draft picks they get in return. The Broncos or Steelers may end up as playoff teams with Cousins under center. At the very least, they might end up with a mid-teens pick.
Furthermore, the Vikings would be replacing Cousins with a low-cost, journeyman veteran like Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston, or Marcus Mariota. Are these the kind of quarterbacks O’Connell can build an explosive offense around? Probably not.
A Teddy Bridgewater reunion would be fun for half the fanbase. But the new regime would be falling into the same trap of revisiting moves the previous management made with a quarterback who hasn’t had as much success as Cousins has had recently.
There is no easy solution to Minnesota’s quarterback situation. Each approach comes with inherent risks. Because the Vikings aren’t in a situation where they can reset, I’d extend Cousins to a reasonable number. However, I’d use draft capital and the backup slot to develop his replacement. If Cousins moves from a Tier 3 quarterback to Tier 2, he may be a viable short-term solution. If not, they can trade him to a quarterback-needy team and turn things over to a player they have been developing.
Essentially, I want to operate in a grey area between Option 1 and 2. I’m performing a high wire act of my own. But, to be fair, that might be the best approach with a player who seems to be trapped between being good and great.
