How far can new head coach Kevin O’Connell take the 2022 Minnesota Vikings? Some fans and analysts look at the close, heartbreaking losses in 2021 and believe that a new mentality can push the team back into the playoffs. Others think that just having a coach who has a healthy relationship with his quarterback can lead to more wins.
But sometimes projecting success can be as simple as looking at what the oddsmakers in Vegas have to say. As it stands right now, Vegas has Minnesota’s 2022 win total at 8.5. This comes after three consecutive seasons of the team entering the season with a Vegas win total of 9. The Vikings finished the last three seasons with records of 10-6, 7-9, and 8-9.
It can be easier to forecast success, or lack thereof, when a team has had the same head coach for several seasons. But how accurate is Vegas when it comes to new head coaches taking over a team?
In 2021, seven NFL teams entered the season with new head coaches. Records among these teams ranged from 3-14 to 9-8 by the season’s end, showing how difficult it can be to find immediate success with a new regime.
However, for anyone who looked at the Vegas win totals before the season, maybe none of these teams’ final records should be a big surprise. The largest difference between Vegas projections and the final record among the seven teams belonged to the Jacksonville Jaguars at 3.5 games. Vegas had their win total at 6.5, and the Jaguars finished 3-14 after a tumultuous season under Urban Meyer.
The Philadelphia Eagles saw the second-largest difference between their projected win total and final record. Like Jacksonville, Philadelphia had a preseason win total of 6.5. Unlike the Jaguars, though, the Eagles found themselves above .500, finishing 9-8 and sneaking into the playoffs as a wild card team.
None of the remaining five teams with new coaches strayed too far from the preseason projections. The New York Jets finished 4-13 after being predicted to win six games, and the Detroit Lions finished 3-13-1 after a preseason win total of 4.5. Expectations were low, and the two franchises failed to meet those.
But Vegas nailed it with its final three teams. The Atlanta Falcons had a projected win total of 7.5 and finished the season 7-10. The Los Angeles Chargers’ win total was 9.5, and they finished 9-8, narrowly missing the playoffs. And the lowly Houston Texans, who could have been the worst team in the league during the Deshaun Watson debacle, finished 4-13 with a projected win total of 4.
The 2021 Chargers’ scenario resembles the 2022 Vikings’ situation. After four years with Anthony Lynn as head coach and middling success, they replaced him with Brandon Staley, a young, analytics-driven defensive mind. It seemed to work. The Chargers were a field goal away from making the playoffs in Week 18.
Like O’Connell, Staley comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree. McVay took over as head coach in 2017 after the Rams fired Jeff Fisher. The Rams were the definition of mediocre under Fisher, going 31-45 under him. That included three seven-win seasons and a 6-10 finish in 2014.
With McVay taking over, the Rams had a new energy. Quarterback Jared Goff, who threw only five touchdowns to seven interceptions as a rookie, looked much more comfortable in 2017. He tossed 28 touchdowns to only seven picks, and the Rams finished 11-5. That easily cleared their preseason win total of 6.
The 2019 Green Bay Packers entered the season with Matt LaFleur taking over as head coach after 13 seasons under Mike McCarthy. The Packers had grown stale, finishing 7-9 in 2017 and 6-9-1 in 2018. McCarthy had been known as a stellar play-caller earlier in his career, but it appeared his magic had disappeared.
LaFleur was a young head coach who had previously been the offensive coordinator for the Rams in 2017 and the Tennessee Titans in 2018. With him leading the charge, Vegas gave the Packers a preseason win total of 9. The Packers would easily clear that threshold, going 13-3 and earning a first-round bye in the playoffs.
As we’ve seen in recent years, Vegas has been good at anticipating first-year records for head coaches. With a preseason win total of 8.5, it appears the Vikings will have a reasonably high floor. Their ceiling could be much higher than experts predict, though. McVay, LaFleur, and Staley have shown that fresh young minds can outpace these projections. Can Kevin O’Connell repeat their success and put the Vikings on the fast track to contention?
