With the beginning of the 2022 NFL league year looming, so too does Kirk Cousins‘ future in Minnesota. The regime that brought him to the organization is now gone. But with a new general manager and head coach in place, Cousins isn’t sure to return in 2022. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell have publicly stated that they plan to move forward with him. However, his $45 million cap hit hangs over the team, and freeing up that money could allow Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell to build a squad truly in their vision.
Until Cousins is leading the team in OTAs and mini-camps, we have to assume the Minnesota Vikings will probably explore trade options. Therefore, we must assume that they have a price in mind regarding a potential trade. Not only is Cousins’ salary a factor, but he’s 33 and only makes sense on a team ready to win now.
However, quarterbacks tend to play well into their mid-30s, especially those as durable as Cousins. Therefore, he could still be a big part of another team’s future. Looking at other high-profile quarterback trades over the past several seasons, we can begin to project what the Vikings could receive in exchange for Captain Kirk.
Recently, we’ve seen lots of movement among starting-caliber quarterbacks. In 2018, the Kansas City Chiefs were ready to move forward with Patrick Mahomes and began shopping long-time starter Alex Smith around. Smith had led the Chiefs to the playoffs four times in five years and was coming off of back-to-back Pro Bowl seasons. But he only eclipsed 4,000 yards once in his five seasons in Kansas City and had a single-season high of 26 touchdown passes. The Chiefs traded him to Washington for third-year cornerback Kendall Fuller and a 2018 third-round pick (78th overall).
At 33, Smith was the same age Cousins is now when KC traded him. But that doesn’t mean that the asking price would be the same. Experts viewed Smith as a true game-manager holding back a Super Bowl contender. Some criticize Cousins for not elevating his teammates, but it’s not a consensus that he is holding back a Super Bowl roster in Minnesota. Add in that the Chiefs had Smith’s successor in place, and it’s evident that the Vikings would receive more than a middle-of-the-road corner and third-round pick.
One year later, multiple teams traded their journeyman quarterbacks. The Baltimore Ravens traded Joe Flacco, whose best days were behind him, to the Denver Broncos for a fourth-round pick. The Miami Dolphins traded quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who is now viewed in a somewhat similar light as Cousins, to the Tennessee Titans for a 2019 seventh-rounder and 2020 fourth-rounder. At the time, the Titans envisioned him backing up Marcus Mariota. Teams will pay more for Cousins because they view him as a starter. But it shows the premium teams place on quarterbacks, even in roles that teams don’t expect to be franchise-altering.
So if these quarterbacks represent whatever potential floor Cousins would warrant, where is the ceiling? Teams shuffled quarterbacks around at an unprecedented level in 2021. That included Carson Wentz, who the Philadelphia Eagles traded to the Indianapolis Colts for a 2021 third-round pick and a 2022 conditional second-round pick.
At age 28, it could come as a surprise that the Eagles didn’t receive more for the talented-yet-erratic Wentz. But Philadelphia was trying to get out from his four-year, $98.4 million contract that he had signed in 2019. Wentz’s play had taken a sharp dip in 2020 when he threw a league-high 15 interceptions despite playing in only 12 games. However, once again, Cousins’ play far exceeds Wentz’s. He’s also significantly more durable than Wentz. Since arriving in Minnesota, the only game Cousins has missed was Week 17 against the Green Bay Packers last year.
The biggest quarterback trade in recent memory came when the Los Angeles Rams dealt Jared Goff and multiple picks to the Detroit Lions for Matthew Stafford. Like Wentz, Goff had signed a four-year extension in 2019. But the Rams believed that Goff wasn’t living up to his $134 million contract following the 2020 season.
It was no secret that the Lions and Stafford were ready to move their separate ways after 12 seasons together. He and Rams head coach Sean McVay ended up hitting it off when they ran into each other in Cabo, and McVay believed he had found the guy to get the Rams over the hump. So the Rams sent Goff, a 2022 first-round pick, a 2023 first-round pick, and a 2021 third-round pick to Detroit for the 33-year old Stafford. Of course, the Rams would end up winning the Super Bowl, and Detroit went 3-13-1 in 2021. However, their haul of draft picks set them up for the future.
Given that Stafford is a better comp for Cousins than Wentz is, Minnesota’s haul for Cousins would probably be more similar to what the Rams got.
The Carolina Panthers reportedly inquired about Cousins recently. Does that mean the starting price would be the sixth-overall pick? According to Drafttek’s trade value chart, the sixth pick holds a value of 1,600 points. The first-round selection the Lions received from LA lands at pick 32, which holds a value of 590.
Even if we project the Rams to regress in 2022, the 2023 first-rounder the Lions would receive would hold a value of 875, at most, if the Rams were to make the playoffs. That only adds up to 1,465. Round 3 selections garner at least 86 points and would likely exceed the 1,600. If the Rams were to regress, this value would be around 120-140 points, right in the ballpark of the Panthers’ sixth-overall pick.
However, teams value current draft picks more highly than future picks. So a second-round selection in 2022 would weigh more than a first-round selection in 2023. However, because Detroit received Goff in the trade, it offset some of the risk associated with future picks.
Like the Rams, Carolina possesses a bridge quarterback the Vikings could receive in return. In this trade, Sam Darnold would function as Goff, a placeholder quarterback for the Vikings as they look for a rookie in one of their upcoming drafts. He would also free up cap space to help re-tool the roster. A player of Darnold’s caliber would likely warrant a mid-round draft pick from Minnesota in either 2022 or 2023, similar to what the Dolphins received for Tannehill in 2019.
So, the trade scenarios for Cousins would look like this:
- The Vikings would send Cousins away along with a fourth-round pick in 2022.
- In return, they would receive a top-10 selection and a bridge quarterback from their trade partner.
- Minnesota would pay $10 million of Kirk’s salary in 2022, while his new team would take on the other $35 million.
The other scenario is they trade Cousins to a playoff-ready team and receive a late-first-round selection in 2022 and a second-round selection in 2023. Once again, the Vikings could include a mid-round pick in 2022 in return for a bridge quarterback if they find someone fit for the job. The problem here is that a potential bridge quarterback may not be on a playoff-ready team. A trade with Denver may land Drew Lock, but is he a requisite bridge QB? Other potential landing spots like Pittsburgh don’t have a guy that a team could realistically start for most of the season. In any case, the salary would be split similarly to the previous scenario.
With the new league year around the corner, we should have more clarity about what direction the Vikings are going at quarterback in 2022. They may have Cousins penciled into their off-season plans. But if the price is right, a move may make too much sense.
