Look, the 2022 Minnesota Twins were never meant to be in the postseason.
There were far too many pitfalls throughout the year, from a flood of injuries to the head of the pitching department leaving abruptly in the middle of the season. It’s hard even to consider what they would look like had they somehow kept their division lead for four more weeks to end the season. Like their squad in 2021, they were just too flawed to be a playoff team, even with the expansion that allowed two additional teams into the fold.
High-end starting pitching that shines on a nightly basis is one department that stands out among the eight remaining teams in the postseason. So if the Twins season had gone as planned – meaning everyone stayed healthy and relatively effective – how would Minnesota’s rotation stack up against their playoff foes?
Again, you must take this with a huge grain of salt. But if we look at the top of the Twins rotation, this group really isn’t far off from being competitive in October baseball. It would be far better than some of the rotations Twins fans have seen get swept out of the first round recently. For example, there wouldn’t be an unheralded rookie like Brian Duensing or Randy Dobnak shaking in their stirrups as they take the mound at Yankee Stadium. The rookie that the Twins would probably feature, Joe Ryan, is a recent top prospect who represented Team USA in the Olympics last year. He had enough gumption and confidence to be given the nod as the Opening Day starter.
Ryan would conceivably join staff ace Sonny Gray and a healthy Tyler Mahle in this pipe dream of a hypothetical. Under the pretense of a healthy and effective rotation, there could be an argument that Kenta Maeda should be considered too. But it’s hard to know what to expect, given his lengthy absence from the game. For the sake of the exercise, we’ll leave King Kenta out of the rotation picture. Maybe he can play a bigger role in the bullpen like he did while donning Dodger blue.
Back to the hypothetical rotation in this year’s playoffs. Gray would have faced off in Game 1 of the wild card series against the Tampa Bay Rays. The former Oakland Athletics, New York Yankees, and Cincinnati Reds righty had a stellar first season with the Twins in every aspect except innings pitched. He had above-average marks in ERA (3.08), WHIP (1.13), and strikeout-to-walk rate (3.25).
He also only had three games where he gave up more than three earned runs, one of which was his abbreviated final start of the season before leaving early with an injury. His opponents in a first-round matchup would have been an ideal scenario for the right-hander. The Rays as a team had roughly league-average output against righties on the year (.678 OPS, 99 wRC+), but they represent the weakest bunch out of all 12 playoff teams. Even with Minnesota’s penchant for removing starters earlier than many fans are comfortable with, it would be reasonable to expect Gray to have some success in this start.
Ryan would probably take the hill in Game 2 based on his overall production in 2022. Who knows how Mahle’s season would have looked with a healthy August and September, but play along and imagine Ryan getting the call against the Rays.
He had a similarly successful season to Gray, and Ryan even outperformed him in strikeouts (9.2 K/9), WHIP (1.10), and swinging strike rate (11.4%). The rookie was also really hitting his stride as the postseason approached, twirling 28.2 innings of 2.20 ERA ball in his final five starts of the season. That sort of momentum would be very enticing for a team making the postseason, as success in October typically goes to whoever is hottest at that time.
A healthy Mahle would start for the Twins if the wild card series against Tampa Bay were to go to a winner-take-all Game 3. The club ponied up at the trade deadline so that they could have another bonafide starter for the playoffs, and this would be his time to shine.
Mahle’s 4.40 ERA on the year leaves much to be desired. But he was trying to play through his shoulder injury, and a hypothetical healthier version would surely have better surface numbers. Even so, Mahle had some excellent stats under the hood, such as a 3.48 xERA and an 11% swinging strike rate.
However, one of his biggest downfalls would be the number of home runs allowed. Sure, some of this had to do with pitching in Cincinnati for most of the year, where homers fly at a higher rate than anywhere besides Coors Field in Denver. But still, a 1.19 HR/9 is hard to stomach on the biggest stage.
If he were to get a start against the Rays, it might not be so scary since they only hit 104 bombs off righties in 2022 (the fifth-fewest in the league). But it would be a different story if the Twins swept the Rays in two games and Mahle moved on to face the Yankees in Game 1 of the second round. The Bronx Bombers led the league in homers off righties on the year and home run per fly ball rate (15.4%). Even in this dream scenario where Mahle is at full strength, it’s hard to envision him leaving Yankee Stadium with a win.
Again, this should all be taken with a grain of salt. The Twins didn’t deserve to be in the playoffs this year, and their active roster on the last day of the season was nearly unrecognizable due to injuries. But if the club could have snuck into October baseball, it would have been fun to see their top starters compete. Many fans probably don’t want to hear that. And with a real-life 78-84 record, they have plenty of reasons to be a little salty.
